Corn crop looks solid: Late July is now or never for bulls

Allendale crop report

Corn Fundamental Support: Coming back from the weekend the forecast remained the same as when trade ended last week. That means only two days of warmer weather today and tomorrow followed by 13 days of mainly below average temperatures. Along with those lower temps is a call for light to moderate rains over many areas. Once again that put pressure on this market just as it has all year. The weekly corn rating was left at 76% good-to-excellent, while yield talks are very high with some mention of a 175 national yield now resulting in some talking prices in the low $3.00′s.

It is safer to take it day by day but for now there are no major weather threats. This keeps the door open to increasing yield estimates.

Old crop traders:

  • After a strong week last week, the September began to sell off compared to December once again today.
  • Basis is still weak with very little expectation for any improvement.
  • There is a lot of talk storing this year’s big crop, that continues to suggest dumping last year’s crop before harvest.

New crop traders:

  • Forecasts remained the same showing some heat today/tomorrow followed by 13 days slightly below average temps.
  • Rains are light/moderate and scattered just about everywhere over the next 15 days.
  • If this forecast holds it would almost certainly mean a successful pollination for all areas.

Bulls:

  • On the last 4 big crop years the late July bounce started this week
  • Buying in anticipation of this bounce is possible on a small scare, some weather threat will need to develop before getting aggressive.

Bears:

  • Today’s forecast suggests a nearly flawless pollination for almost all corn growing areas
  • Even though fund selling was slow, if here at all, today showed that “normal” selling appears to be enough to push to new lows.
  • Any additional fund selling would likely be on sell stops, those would simply accelerate the current selling if they are hit.
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