Grains across the board have been “feeling the heat” as ideal growing conditions and reports of ample supply continue to dominate the headlines. At the present time, there is no reason to attempt to pick a bottom in the soybeans as price has been rapidly declining since late June. There does appear to be a local level of support at 1065’0; however, given the market environment, one may require price to confirm a reversal by producing a new relative high on the chart before traders begin looking for opportunities on the long side of beans.
Certainly, it can be difficult to fight the “contrarian temptation” following this massive sell-off in beans; yet, the old adage “the trend is your friend” appears to reign supreme in the soybeans (at least for the time being). With both intermediate and near-term momentum pointing lower, the higher probability opportunity appears to be on the short side of beans, selling corrective “pops” into resistance. Near-term resistance pivots can be seen at 1088’0, 1100’0 and 1117’4 respectively.
Nov. ‘14 Soybeans 30-minute Bar Chart (e-Signal)