Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Tuesday, July 15, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Blue line above = high of last week and it is a weekly buy or long sell below or sellers below or signal bar for a one legged pullback in a bull move buy or long after a bear breakout below a 10 bar bull microchannel. Bull body, always in long, but tail, not big, and yesterday was tight trading range so today has 50% chance to become outside down bar day. Possible low of the day so ok swing buy or long, but higher probability to wait. Pink line above = all time high and top of 60 minimum or minutes wedge
- Bar 2 - Follow through, more up, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but small breakout and follow through so far.
- Bar 3 - Fail, failure breakout high of yesterday, final flag yesterday tight trading range, but 3 bull bars so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Possible high of the day but low probability swing sell or short. Better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell. Good location for 60 minimum or minutes bears because just below top of 60 minimum or minutes wedge so low risk, but this always means low probability also
- Bar 6 - Opening reversal at moving average, ok swing buy or long but still on swing sell or short. Breakout mode
- Bar 10 - Wedge bull flag, fail, failure breakout low of yesterday, but 1t body, strong 9 so sideways more likely. Low probability buy or long for low of the day, but probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and sideways, like yesterday
- Bar 12 - Breakout pullback sell or short but 3 dojis so low probability and probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 14 - Fail, failure wedge bottom, ok swing sell or short
- Bar 15 - Bear follow through, but tail, 60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average, trendline, so low probability sell or short unless wide stop and scale in, swing or scalp, stop above 13. Wedge 1 10 but better to wait for a strong bull breakout or second entry buy
- Bar 16 - Big bar so possible sell climax
- Bar 17 - Parabolic wedge 1 10, 60 minimum or minutes opening reversal at 60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average, big bull bar, fail, failure breakout below bull trendline, measured move. Good context and good sell below or sellers below or signal bar. Ok swing buy or long for possible low of the day and move back into yesterday trading range.
- Bar 18 - Breakout pullback sell or short but probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 20 - Parabolic wedge second entry buy, ok buy or long for possible low of the day
Tight trading range day. There is a 10 bar (10 week) bull microchannel on the weekly chart and last week was the first pullback, which is usually bought. The market usually goes to one more new high for 1 - 3 bars and then has at least at least two legs down. Since this is the weekly chart, the pullback is usually at least 10 bars and two legs, or 10 weeks, as the minimum goal. Once the top is in, downside targets for the pullback are the bottom of the wedge on the daily chart, around 1917.50, and the top of the breakout point on the daily chart, around 1890, and the weekly trend line, which is around this same area. For more, see Intraday market update.