Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Wednesday, July 2, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Pink line = top of weekly channel. 70 was reasonable buy the close bar so magnet and should get there early. Final flag 76, final flag 81, but 4 bar tight trading range. Ok buy or long for swing and low of the day, but yesterday = buy climax so trading range day more likely
- Bar 2 - Big bull bar, probably always in long, but still below 76 to of bear leg so still bear channel
- Bar 4 - Breakout pullback sell or short, ok swing, but probably always in long for test 70 close
- Bar 6 - Higher low major trend reversal but doji, middle of trading range 61, low probability buy or long
- Bar 7 - Double top at moving average, two legged pullback in a bear move in bear channel, ok swing sell or short, but trading range more likely so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower and below 1. Tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop
- Bar 9 - Higher low major trend reversal second entry sell but doji, tight trading range. Low probability, but ok swing buy or long, always in long. Ok swing sell or short, stop above 3. Breakout mode
- Bar 12 - Double top 7 at moving average, but doji, always in long, probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but ok swing sell or short. Bad follow through up and or down, still in breakout mode, but always in long.
- Bar 16 - Two legged pullback in a bear move sell or short 3, possible high of the day, ok swing sell or short, but still always in long, and still trading range day, breakout mode. Better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell
- Bar 18 - Breakout pullback buy or long, always in long, but near top of trading range
- Bar 19 - Lower high major trend reversal, but tight trading range. Ok swing sell or short, but trading range more likely
- Bar 21 - Follow through from bear reversal and double top 70, but sill always in long. Middle of trading range day, breakout mode
Trading range day. Seasonally bullish from June 25 - July 5. Yesterday broke above top of rising weekly channel at 1966.25, and above top of 60 minute bull channel. Bull breakouts of bull channels usually fail within 5 bars, but that is as long as a month on the weekly chart. The reversal down usually tests the bottom of channel. For more, see trading ranges.
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