Excessive moves in euro and natural gas

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes. 

Today’s Highlight The excessive moves among the Euro (CME:E6U14), Natural Gas and the 30-year all come within the context of already fulfilling corrective limits. Their extensions suggest either that deeper corrections are underway, or that the legs are not corrections at all. Sudden, steep and substantial reversals Thursday would restore the original context.

Dollar Basket September Contract (DX, ETF: (UUP, UDN)) Wednesday’s bounce back up to 80.00 resistance doesn’t reverse the trend up. It does create room to expend more selling pressure before can be very productive, but fresh lows remain likelier regardless.

Eurodollar September Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gapping down sharply Wednesday undermined the third day pattern for the 4-day sequence that began forming Tuesday. Gapping up sharply Thursday would still be in-line, so long as the session close negative — in which case fresh lows would be in store.

Gold (COMEX:GCQ14) August Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Wednesday’s opening dip touched the 1322.00 “lower prior high” that had defined Monday’s intraday peak. While closing positive for a second consecutive session, the reaction up held the same 1332.00-1335.00 resistance as Tuesday. That’s not the spirit of confirming Tuesday’s breakout. Regardless, back above 1333.00 could extend instead of continue topping.

Silver September Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Wednesday’s opening dip tested 21.05 support by a dime before recovering to fresh highs at 21.33. Now more than simply undermine the upward momentum, back under 21.05 would signal momentum reversing down.

30-year Treasury September Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Not only did 136-02 “lower prior highs” fail to produce support, but the open’s gap down there only extended down sharply intraday to135-06. Nervous discounting ahead of Thursday’s Employment Situation report would explain the extended decline, but only a recovery above 135-26 would be credible for reversing momentum up at all.

Crude Oil (NYMEX:CLQ14) August Contract (CL, ETF: (USO)) Tuesday’s reaction down from 106.05 resistance had reversed to Monday’s low testing 104.70 support, and Wednesday’s modest bounce probed fresh lows testing 104.25. Closing lower Thursday would confirm a deeper drop underway targeting 102.50 and101.00.

Natural Gas July Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Holding 4.44-4.45 support Tuesday proved too little to avoid Wednesday’s gap down that extended to fresh lows at 4.33. Closing decisively back above 4.38 would still have been bullish, but still overlapping it does keep alive a buy signal back above 4.44-4.45.

About the Author
Rod David

Rod David develops analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He primarily analyzes S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. Rod publishes "Trading Plan" and more each session at the blog http://IfThenSignals.com.

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