Daily Price Action: E-mini S&P

Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Tuesday, July 1, 2014 (CME:SPU14).
 

  • Bar 1 - Bull breakout just below all time high = high of last week = pink line. Bears will sell or short, betting this week will be inside bar. Low probably, low risk. Always in long, ok swing buy or long, but better to wait for follow through. Top of channel on weekly chart = 1966.25 = pink line
  • Bar 2 - Bull body so follow through, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but small bar, yesterday = small trading range day, so not yet strong trend price action
  • Bar 6 - Fail, failure breakout high of yesterday second entry sell, fail, failure breakout all time high blue line, but doji, always in long, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but weak rally so probably bull leg in trading range and not in bull trend
  • Bar 10 - Parabolic wedge 2 5, but only 1 bear bar today, doji sell below or sellers below or signal bar, more likely buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Ok swing sell or short for high of the day but better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell
  • Bar 12 - Breakout pullback buy or long, but 2 bear bars so low probability, probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and more sideways to get closer to moving average. Always in long, so ok swing buy or long, stop below 7 or maybe 12
  • Bar 17 - Breakout pullback buy or long but probably top of trading range. Low probability so swing only. Better to buy or long pullback since weak rally
  • Bar 19 - Breakout pullback buy or long but bear body, weak rally 12, probably trading range soon. Sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher for pullback to 15 low and near moving average. Ok buy or long, but need swing stop
  • Bar 27 - Bear inside day, fail, failure breakout microchannel 18 22, but 12 bar bull microchannel with many dojis so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower and tight trading range. Low probability sell or short. Testing top of weekly channel. More likely trs, but might get trs, small pullback bear and endless pullback, and then bear breakout to always in short
  • Bar 30 - Breakout pullback buy or long but many dojis so probably has to hit moving average. Low probability buy or long or sell or short. Still always in long, but if tight trading range grows to 20 bars, then probably same for bulls and bears, and trend resumption or trend reversal
  • Bar 34 - Two legged pullback in a bull move buy or long, always in long, but tight trading range and probably will test moving average. Ok buy or long with swing stop below 20. Tight trading range, probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher for moving average test
  • Bar 39 - Higher high major trend reversal, but nesp, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Low probability sell or short, better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell. Bears probably will sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher 26, but better to only buy or long until more selling pressure. Swing stop below 12 or 2-3t below 30, or below 20 = measuring gap. 30 is possible bottom of trading range so target

 

pending chart 3171


Trend from the open bull, new all-time high, breakout above top of weekly channel. Seasonally bullish from June 25 - July 5. Broke above top of rising weekly channel at 1966.25, and above top of 60 minute bull channel. Bull breakouts of bull channels usually fail within 5 bars, but that is as long as a month on the weekly chart. The reversal down usually tests the bottom of channel. For more, see breakouts.

[more Bar-by-Bar Analysis, Daily Webinar and Trading Course info at www.brookspriceaction.com and www.brookstradingcourse.com]

 

Ed Note: Every trading traders can listen to live, streaming squawk box commentary on FUTURESmag.com coming directly from the S&P trading pits in Chicago.

About the Author
Al Brooks

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.

Originally published on BPA Forums. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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