Daily Price Action: E-mini S&P 500

Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESU14). This is his analysis for Monday, June 30, 2014.

  • Bar 1 - Today is the last day of the month and the bears will try to put a tail on top of the monthly bar to begin to transition the monthly chart into a trading range. The top of the weekly channel is 1966, so it is a magnet this week. Bulls want a close on high. Yesterday ended always in long but 10 bar trading range. Wait for breakout up and or down. Big doji, limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping
  • Bar 3 - Two inside bars but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. Buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher. Wait
  • Bar 6 - Double bottom 1 at moving average, probably will be ok scalp since trapped bulls and bears, but better to wait for breakout. Possible final flag
  • Bar 8 - Follow through from bull breakout but doji, possible final flag 6. Always in long, ok swing, stop below 7, but more likely limited upside. Doji, lots of trading range price action, low probability scalp unless swing stop
  • Bar 10 - Final flag 6, wedge 1 7, one bar final flag 8 7, but 5 consecutive bull bars, always in long. Buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, stop below 7, but more dojis and probably more tight trading range. Possible high of the day but low probability. Better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell
  • Bar 16 - 3 consecutive bear bars, close on low, traders starting to reverse to always in short, but probably need 1 more bar since still above 6 low and bear bars not big. Sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, but probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher if goes above
  • Bar 17 - Double bottom 6, but 4 consecutive bear bars close below middle so probably always in short, sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher. Tail, back in 6 tight trading range, so trading range more likely than bear trend
  • Bar 19 - Breakout pullback sell or short but weak bear so trading range more likely than trend. Probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but better to wait for a strong bull breakout or second entry buy. Always in short, so ok sell or short, stop above 10 or 14
  • Bar 20 - Double bottom 5, two inside bars final flag, but always in short, sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, especially in top 3rd of range. Better to wait for a strong bull breakout or second entry buy. Probably tight trading range again since same level as 6 tight trading range
  • Bar 23 - Breakout, 3 consecutive bull bars, but still below 10 top of bear leg so trading range most likely
  • Bar 24 - Lower high major trend reversal, but 4 consecutive bull bars. Probably always in long, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but trading range day so far. Better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell, even tho bear scalpers probably scaled in above 20


 

pending chart 3162
 

Trading range day. Seasonally bullish from June 25 - July 5, and might get one more new high on 60 minute chart to form a wedge top, instead of the current higher high major trend reversal. Top of rising weekly channel is around 1966, so might soon test bottom of channel. For more, see trading range reversals.
 

[more Bar-by-Bar Analysis, Daily Webinar and Trading Course info at www.brookspriceaction.com and www.brookstradingcourse.com]

 

Ed Note: Each trading day going forward, traders can listen to live, streaming squawk box commentary on FUTURESmag.com coming directly from the S&P trading pits in Chicago.

About the Author
Al Brooks

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.

Originally published on BPA Forums. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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