Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESU14). This is his analysis for Friday, June 27, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Yesterday was a trending trading range day and market is between both trs so trading range likely. Tail so sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher. Today is fri so open of week = blue line, hly = green line, both around 1955, and the low of week at 1936.25 = blue line are magnets at end of day. Pink line = high of yesterday, which is a 60 minimum or minutes lower high. Bulls want to get above it to end bear channel. Bears want double top or lower high
- Bar 2 - Close on high, consecutive bull bars, always in long, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but small bars, yesterday = trending trading range day, so trading range likely
- Bar 4 - Lower high major trend reversal, opening reversal at moving average but low probability, always in long. Ok swing sell or short for high of the day, probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but since trading range likely, might test low of the day
- Bar 9 - Double bottom but 3 bars close on low so probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, but possible low of the day so ok swing buy or long. Still on swing sell or short. Reversal down and up, small range so breakout mode
- Bar 18 - Lower high major trend reversal, two legged pullback in a bear move 4, two legged pullback in a bear move 12, but doji, always in long, trading range day so far. Breakout pullback buy or long but top of trading range and weak rally so swing or wait. Sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher
- Bar 20 - Double top major trend reversal 76, wedge 11 15, but tight channel, 2t tail, more tight trading range likely. Ok swing sell or short, but low probability until strong breakout up and or down
- Bar 30 - Lower high major trend reversal
- Bar 37 - Possible triangle 22 33, but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. 50% chance successful breakout, 50% chance fail, failure breakout
- Bar 39 - Fail, failure bull breakout, probably more down, but low probability until strong breakout
- Bar 40 - Fail, failure bear breakout, wedge 26 33, but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. Probably two legs down but low probability since tight trading range
- Bar 44 - Close on low, might get bear breakout to new low of the day, but breakout likely brief so have to be fast
Trading range day. Seasonally bullish from June 25 - July 5, and might get one more new high on 60 minute chart to form a wedge top, instead of the current higher high major trend reversal. At top of weekly channel around 1961, so might soon test bottom of channel.
Ed Note: Each trading day going forward, traders can listen to live, streaming squawk box commentary on FUTURESmag.com coming directly from the S&P trading pits in Chicago.