Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESM14). This is his analysis for Thursday, June 26, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Yesterday ended with a wedge top and 4 consecutive bear bars so probably always in short. Probably trading range today after yesterday major trend reversal. Big bear bar, close on low, close below low of past 25 bars, ok swing sell or short for possible high of the day, but trading range more likely.
- Bar 2 - Follow through, maybe more down, swing sell or short, but more likely will enter trading range
- Bar 3 - Big bear breakout, sell the close, more down, but need wide stop
- Bar 4 - Another big bear bar, sell vacuum test low of yesterday, swing sell or short but better to wait to sell or short higher
- Bar 5 - Fail, failure breakout low of yesterday, two legged pullback in a bull move low of yesterday, but 1t body, strong bear, possible low of the day, ok swing buy or long, better to wait for a strong bull breakout or second entry buy. Sell climax at support = low of yesterday so wait to sell or short higher. 7 breakout pullback sell or short but 3 bull bars. Sideways to up to moving average likely, then maybe two legged pullback in a bear move sell or short, but might become final flag
- Bar 8 - Breakout pullback sell or short but one legged pullback in a bear move after sell climax at support is low probability and probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Possible low of the day
- Bar 10 - Bull breakout, close above 9. Big down, big up so probably trading range, but might channel up all day
- Bar 11 - Follow through but only doji. Probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, but most likely sideways since weak follow through. Breakout pullback sell or short but 6 bar microchannel so low probability. Disappointing follow through for bulls and bears so trading range likely
- Bar 15 - Higher low major trend reversal, breakout test or bought 5, but ttrrns. Low probability since tight trading range and just below moving average. More likely sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and more trading range.
- Bar 17 - Two legged pullback in a bear move near moving average but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. More likely more trading range. Breakout mode
- Bar 18 - Breakout pullback buy or long, probably always in long, ok swing buy or long, higher probability to wait for breakout
Sell vacuum test of yesterday's low, and then a double bottom and trend reversal up. Seasonally bullish from June 25 - July 5, and might get one more new high on 60-minute chart to form a wedge top, instead of the current higher high major trend reversal. At top of weekly channel around 1961, so might soon test bottom of channel.
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