Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Tuesday, June 24, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Two tight trading range days, double bottom low of yesterday at 60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average, but tail. Probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and more sideways. Daily chart had sell or short signal yesterday but strong bull so probably need second entry sell, which means probably one more push up on daily, then final flag or higher high major trend reversal setup
- Bar 4 - 4 consecutive bull bars, double bottom 26, always in long, ok swing but higher probability to wait for breakout. Opening reversal sell or short but 4 bull bars so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Low probability sell or short
- Bar 6 - Breakout pullback buy or long, swing or wait
- Bar 7 - Big bull bar, buy vacuum test of high of yesterday, always in long, ok buy or long, but need follow through, else another trading range day
- Bar 8 - Follow through, breakout above high of yesterday, always in long, stop below 6. Probably need 1 more bull bar follow through for bull trend
- Bar 10 - Fail, failure breakout, two inside bars, two legged pullback in a bear move 4, but big enough 7 8 breakout so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower and buy above or buyers above, but possible high of the day. Better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell
- Bar 11 - More breakout, buy the close
- Bar 12 - Bigger bar so possible consecutive buy climax and parabolic wedge, but still buy the close
- Bar 13 - Doji, still buy the close but probably trading range within next 3 bars so ok to exit longs here or soon. Still always in long, stop below 11
- Bar 15 - Parabolic wedge 4 8, low probability sell or short but possible high of the day. Better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell. Always in long, but better to wait to buy or long pullback
- Bar 17 - Breakout pullback buy or long but parabolic wedge so tight trading range likely. Bulls need swing stop. Probably too early to sell or short, but 1st target below 14 low, then moving average
Trend from the first bar bull at 60 minute moving average, then parabolic wedge top and reversal day. At top of weekly channel around 1961 today was a 2nd entry final flag short on the daily chart, with an initial swing target of 1920 area, which is the bottom of the most recent bull leg. Consecutive sell or short climaxes, tight channel, so odds favor major trend reversal bottom tomorrow for swing up, even though more down likely on daily chart.
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