Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Wednesday, June 25, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Yesterday had consecutive sell climax in a tight channel so 2/3 chance today will have a major trend reversal and at least two legs up and then big trading range. Lower low major trend reversal, final flag 81, close on high, but big bar so big risk. Top of trading range so low probability. Possible low of the day so ok swing buy or long, but higher probability to wait. Always in long
- Bar 2 - Doji so not bear body so follow through. Always in long, stop below 1. Breakout pullback sell or short for possible high of the day but probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Weak follow through so possible trading range soon
- Bar 6 - Moving average gap bar, fail, failure breakout moving average and 78 high, expanding triangle 72 76, but trend from the first bar bull. Probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and trading range. Weak follow through 2 4 6 so trading range likely. Low probability sell or short but might test lower than what seems likely because trading range. Low probability buy above or buyers above
- Bar 8 - Higher low major trend reversal but only 3 bars so more sideways likely. Always in long, stop below 1
- Bar 10 - Double top, but always in long, so swing only since low probability and probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 12 - Two legged pullback in a bull move but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. Swing stop below 1. If use stop below 8 or 12, lower probability. Since trading range, might test lower, around low of yesterday
- Bar 13 - Possible triangle 5 9 but doji, tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop, always in long so low probability sell or short
- Bar 14 - Higher low major trend reversal, possible triangle buy or long, always in long, ok swing, but still might fail, failure and get bear breakout. If so, probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower for two legs up
- Bar 15 - Good breakout, should hit targets = leg 1 equals leg 2 measured move, measured move, 60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average
- Bar 18 - Buy vacuum test of targets, but strong enough so any pullback will probably test 18 close. Buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. If becoming trading range, this could be bull trap and high of the day since 2nd leg up in trading range
- Bar 20 - Two legged pullback in a bear move, possible trading range, but strong enough breakout so more likely buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower for test of 18 close. Might test 18 low and moving average. Possible sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher at targets,ii final flag, then pullback. Low probability buy or long above and need swing stop below 14, maybe below 20. Pullback likely since at targets.
Lower low major trend reversal, broad bull channel. Seasonally bullish from June 25 - July 5, and might get one more push up on 60 minute chart to form a wedge top, instead of the current higher high major trend reversal. At top of weekly channel around 1961, so might soon test bottom of channel.
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