Oil: higher is the path?

Oil Outlooks

As Iraq has dominated the headlines since last Tuesday, we’ve not really had much to talk about. We’ve even missed the world premiere of Keeping up with the Kardashians. I hope they played up their Middle Eastern heritage to really get the controversy really going.

Heck, I say we let Kanye sit in on a presidential presser on Iraq. My money is on him that he gets to the microphone faster than the Secret Service can take him down. While we can never be sure what Yeezuz will say, we’re getting pretty confused what everyone in the White House is saying when they talk about Iraq. First it was President Obama last week, who mentioned that the U.S. Government was ready to "help."

OK, thanks for that President Clarity. Then Secretary of State Kerry said we’re open to the use of drones to attack the insurgents. Umm, help me out on this one, but the last city I saw the Sunni militants they were driving up and down the streets of a populated city. Now there’s talk that the U.S. is working with Iran to stump the Sunni rise in Iraq and Syria.

EIA Guesstimates:

CRUDE (NYMEX:CLN14) -1.0M – There’s going to be a slight rise back in runs this week so we think that is going to be enough to balance out an increase in imports. Overall we should see a slight draw here, but we’ll stay on top of the status of the refinery utilization. We thought seeing the drop last week in runs would make up some ground for a build in supply, but seeing imports stay at the 7M b/d level is not going to give supply a chance to build up.

GASOLINE (NYMEX:RBN14) -1.5M – This is a job best done with a HP5151. The thing here is will the bounce in demand be enough to balance the bounce back in production. Including blending, we are looking at a solid average to be above 10M b/d to maintain supply builds. Imports are always talked up about coming into the NYH, but it’s still a “I’ll believe it when I see it…”

DISTILLATE -1.0M – This could easily be a 1M build, so I’m not fully committed to the whole draw. The trick here is if exports can and will pick up the pace. The import picture is thinning so we can tell demand is picking up outside the US, we’re just waiting on the other shoe to drop and catch the exports catching up.

UTILIZATION +0.50% - This gets some recovery from a few refineries coming back, but enough still coming off.

CUSHING -1.25M – We get back on track this week and start bringing crude down to the USG. The lack of imports coming into the Gulf will get the lines full again and waiting on Seaway Twin by the end of the month.

About the Author

Carl Larry is president of Oil Outlooks and Opinions LLC. Follow him on Twitter (@oiloutlooks) or on his website.

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