Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESM14). This is his analysis for Tuesday, June 17, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Yesterday ended with 5 hour trading range. Doji bar in that trading range so probably limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping. Low probability buy or long, but possible low of the day
- Bar 2 - Big bull bar, close on low, always in long, probably more up, but top of trading range, 60 minute 20 bar exponential moving average so lower probability
- Bar 3 - Follow through, more up, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower, always in long
- Bar 5 - Fail, failure breakout high of yesterday but doji, tight channel, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. One legged pullback in a bear move =2 target above
- Bar 6 - Bear breakout but need 2 - 3 bear bars, else buy the close
- Bar 7 - Big outside up bar, more up, measuring gap 80 6, leg 1 equals leg 2 measured move above
- Bar 11 - Parabolic wedge 4 8, fail, failure breakout high of yesterday second entry sell, leg 1 equals leg 2 measured move, 2 measuring gap, ok swing sell or short for high of the day, but low probability, especially since 3 bar tight trading range
- Bar 15 - Double bottom 8, but tight trading range 8 so low probability buy or long and need swing stop at least 2t below 7. Tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. Still on swing sell or short, stop above 11. Still always in long. Probably limit order market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping and better to wait
- Bar 20 - Big breakout, always in short, more down. Needs new low of the day, else more trading range
- Bar 21 - No bull body so follow through, more down, stop above 20 or 19
- Bar 23 - Higher low, fail, failure breakout, bull reversal bar, but tight channel. Probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, more down, and possible sell below or sellers below or signal bar for new low of the day
Parabolic wedge opening reversal. Just below 60 minute leg one equals leg two measured move and top of weekly channel around 1951 above. Odds favor reversal down to bottom of channel, but might get one more new high first for second entry sell. Probably sideways for at least a couple of weeks to form major trend reversal before much down.