In the belly of the barrel

Oil has been and always will be a beast of burden.

Considering that the markets are getting less attention than the Kim and Kanye wedding, I think it’s time to take a little “me” time. Don’t get this confused with me talking about how right I’ve been on these markets. It’s just a few minutes to help people understand that there’s a huge difference on someone who talks about the markets, writes about the markets and is actually in the markets.

I’ve covered it top to bottom. At a point in my career, I thought that was a great achievement. Now I feel like the guy who knows too many secrets. People want to talk to me, but many don’t because they don’t want to either hear the truth or end up part of it when I’m talking my game. That’s the thing though, I appreciate honor and loyalty above all. I’ve not mentioned a negative thing about those that have respected me (ex-wives don’t count).

EIA Guesstimates:

CRUDE (NYMEX:CLN14) -2.0M – You win some, you lose some.  Last week I hit everything but the crude number so let’s get this right on today.  We miscalculated the imports last week, but that’s not going to happen this week.  We paid off some dock workers who swore they could count past 100 and we think that the import number drops back under 7M.  We think the loss in these imports offset the idle crude at Garyville.

GASOLINE (NYMEX:RBN14) -2.0M – Here’s the fire test.  If there’s anything that scares people more than fire, it’s Justin Bieber.  No wait, I mean $4 gasoline.  If we get another week of demand over 9M b/d (I think so) combined with the loss of Garyville and some slowdowns because of weather, we think that the draw here is at least 2M.  The economics are still not close for imports, but if we get good demand here and we see a solid Non Farm Payrolls number come Friday, we’re going to start prepping the makeup to talk about calling dibs on $4 gasoline.

DISTILLATE -1.0M – I’m playing it a bit dangerous here, but we should all know by now that it’s a matter of production +/-5M b/d.  We think that refinery production eases off just a little here as more refineries are trying to increase that gasoline yield.  This number could see a bigger draw if exports are going to continue to bounce back for two weeks in a row.

UTILIZATION -1.0% - After all the hype about Garyville, we think that there were a few other refineries that had to ease back a little as the storms waved over the South last week.

CUSHING -1.0M – Last week’s build is going to help take some of the flow out of the line, but at this point it’s not about how much is coming down, but how much is left in storage.  Then that moves on to how much is going in.  I don’t want to be too confident at my age, but I know I probably have more time than Cushing does as a benchmark.

About the Author

Carl Larry is president of Oil Outlooks and Opinions LLC. Follow him on Twitter (@oiloutlooks) or on his website.

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