What's going on with grains?

Grains outlook


Wheat closed lower again on reports of much better weather for finishing the crop in the central and southern Great Plains, as well as on forecasts for drier and warmer conditions in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to aid in planting and initial growth of spring wheat.

Reports of lower prices for wheat in Europe and Russia hurt price action in the U.S. Reports indicate that demand is not strong anywhere for wheat. Futures were able to recover from the lows along with the rallies in corn and soybeans.

Europe and Russia have an exportable surplus of wheat and are reported to be offering in a big way, but are finding few takers. China also has a much better crop this year, so world demand should be less for exporters to sell into.

Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. Spring wheat areas of the northern Great Plains and into Canada should get drier and warmer weather to promote planting progress along with some showers this week. None of the precipitation looks to be heavy and should not cause much in the way of delays. The U.S. has seen a lot of rain this week in the Great Plains and crop conditions should now be stable.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see showers today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas should get scattered showers and storms this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should get scattered showers the rest of this week and drier conditions this weekend. Temperatures will be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 640 and 617 July. Support is at 631, 625, and 616 July, with resistance at 648, 651, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 728 July. Support is at 729, 723, and 718 July, with resistance at 759, 771, and 780 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 713 and 681 July. Support is at 711, 707, and 702 July, and resistance is at 732, 738, and 754 July.


Futures closed lower in light to moderate volume trading. There was a lot of rain in Texas and southern Louisiana, but crops in the region are said to be okay for now. Some levees will need to be rebuilt and some water must be drained, then losses, if any, will become more apparent. However, producers do not appear real concerned for now. It remains mostly a domestic market, and the domestic market remains quiet.

Most of the rice appears to be sold in areas near the Gulf Coast. That puts most of the available long grain rice in Arkansas, but there is little trading interest seen. The weather is good and the last of the crop should be getting planted now. Asian long grain prices are mostly steady today. Many industry members will be in Costa Rica for the rest of the week at a rice convention of the Americas.

Overnight News: Showers and storms today and tomorrow, then dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1493 July. Support is at 1488, 1476, and 1464 July, with resistance at 1509, 1512, and 1517 July.


Corn and oats closed higher as the Midwest weather continued to improve. Ideas are that both markets were oversold and due a corrective bounce. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed big crop progress last week, and it is possible that futures will continue to move lower for the short term.

Crop conditions are currently very good and demand is not particularly strong. However, oats have gotten support from planting delays in the northern Midwest and up into Canada, and there is a chance that some acreage in the northwest Corn Belt will not be planted due to the late date.

Nonetheless, farmers are working hard to get both crops in the ground now. Corn is generally working lower as the crop is mostly planted and much of it has emerged. It will be warm with some showers around through this weekend to promote good growth. Trends on the charts are weak and imply that futures can work lower. However, futures might be getting oversold and could see some recovery trading for another day or two this week.

Chart Analysis: Trends in corn are down with objectives of 450 July. Support is at 467, 457, and 453 July, and resistance is at 475, 476, and 482 July. Trends in oats are mixed to down with objectives of 326 and 313 July. Support is at 336, 327, and 320 July, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 358 July.

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