E-mini S&P 500:
We Are Selling Against The Trendline:
The S&P (CME:ESN14) is holding well against all-time highs though we have seen a small four point range ahead of U.S. GDP, pending home sales and jobless claims this morning. The market reached a high of 1914 yesterday, just shy of our long term major target of 1917-1919.
Better than expected U.S. data this morning while investors continue to speculate further, easing measures out of the European Central Bank in a week will help be a catalyst for new highs and a test to our target.
A close above 1917-1919 will encourage a clean breakout. Support comes in at 1904.75-1906; bulls can look to use the first test here as a buying opportunity on a day trade. Major support will come in at the 1898.50-1900 level and a close below here will put the market into a consolidation lower.
Resistance- 1917-1919****, 1938**
Pivot - 1910
Support – 1904.75-1906**, 1898.50-1900**, 1893**, 1880.50-1883***, 1874-75.50*, 1866-1867.75**
Look For A Small Bounce Early, Then Continued Selling:
Crude oil (NYMEX:CLN14) has begun to create a topping formation as the market traded through major support at the 103.11. In a separate e-mail, our Actionable Trade Ideas System yesterday put out a sell recommendation at 103.80 or better as this market is poised for lower price action. As we have mentioned there is only a slightly clearer picture in Ukraine, so a continued close below 103.11 is needed ahead of the weekend in order to discourage short covering and fresh buying ahead of the weekend.
The major focus right now is the inventory report which the API preliminary report showed a build of 3.49 million barrels yesterday as traders brace for the official EIA report this morning. This is a breath of fresh air for the bear camp after seeing such massive drawdown last week. The low so far this session is 102.61 while our next major support level comes in at 102.49; a close below here is needed to help confirm a failure.
Resistance –104.29**, 104.77*, 104.99-105.22***, 107.33***
Support – 103.65-103.85**, 103.11***, 102.49**, 101.92*, 100.82***, 100.29**