AUD/CAD: Battle for commodity dollar supremacy

Over the last few years, the currencies of Australia and Canada have engaged in a friendly rivalry around the parity (1.00) level. From mid-2011 to mid-2013, the Australian Dollar held the upper hand, with the AUD/CAD pair finding support at the 1.00 four separate times. In mid-2013, the pair broke below the parity barrier and the loonie was the stronger commodity dollar for the next 20 months.

Early this year, the polarity switched back in the Aussie’s favor once again, but with rates pulling back this month, another test of the critical 1.00 level may in the cards next week.

Zooming in to the daily chart only elevates the importance of parity to the AUD/CAD. Beyond the longer-term implications, 1.00 also represents the completion of a clear bullish Gartley pattern, marked by the convergence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of XA, 161.8% Fib extension of BC, and AB=CD pattern. The pair’s 100-day MA also comes in just above 1.00 at 1.0016 as of writing, and the RSI indicator is approaching oversold territory. With so many key technical levels converging around 1.00, a bounce is favored if rates test that level later this week or early next week.



If we do see rates dip down to 1.00, the bullish Gartley pattern suggests that we could see a bounce toward 1.0200, the 61.8% retracement of the whole ABCD pattern. On the other hand, a conclusive break below 1.000 would create a failed pattern and open the door for a continuation down toward 0.9880 (50% of XA) or .9770 (61.8% of XA) next.


About the Author
Matt Weller

Senior Technical Analyst for Matt has actively traded various financial instruments including stocks, options, and forex since 2005. Each day, Matt creates research reports focusing on technical analysis of the forex, equity, and commodity markets. In his research, he utilizes candlestick patterns, classic technical indicators, and Fibonacci analysis to predict market moves. Matt is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a member of the Market Technicians Association. You can reach Matt directly via e-mail ( or on twitter (@MWellerFX).

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