Wheat (CBOT:WN14) closed lower on forecasts for better precipitation in the central and southern Great Plains by the end of the week. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. Spring Wheat areas of the northern Great Plains and into Canada should get drier and wearmer weather to promote planting progress along with some showers this weekend. Futures remain under pressure in general on increasing competition for export business around the globe. cheaper prices are being offered from Europe and Russia. Those parts of the world have good production.
Also weighing on prices were forecasts for more beneficial precipitation in the Great Plains, and especially Kansas, later this week. Crop condition ratings did not improve on Monday, and some now say that the rains are coming too late to help the Winter wheat crops.
It remains too cool and wet for best planting of Spring Wheat in the northern Great Plains and on into Canada, but those áreas are turning warmer and planting progress should become much more rapid as the week progresses. The US has about the only bad production conditions in the world, and the conditions in the Great Plains should now show at least some stability. Other origins such as the EU and Russia have much better weather and are offering at far cheaper prices.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather this week, but showers on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should get drier conditions the rest of this week. Temperatures will be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 663, 661, and 649 July, with resistance at 686, 695, and 700 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 759, 756, and 750 July, with resistance at 780, 786, and 794 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 732, 728, and 712 July, and resistance is at 754, 756, and 763 July.
CORN AND OATS
Corn (CBOT:CN14) and Oats closed lower as the Midwest weather continued to improve. Corn is generally working lower as the crop is mostly planted and is starting to emerge. USDA should show some very high condition ratings on Tuesday. It will be warm with some showers around late in the week to promote good growth. Wire reports indicate that Ukraine is still planting and that Spring crops planting has fallen behind average. US planting progress was slow last week amid wet and cold weather. Only northwest U.S. Corn Belt áreas remain behind, and producers in these áreas shoud be planting again later this week and will probably work through the holiday.
Weather forecasts for planting in the Midwest call for warmer temperaturas and generally drier conditions through the week. Reports from the field indicate that many farmers are now done planting Corn and have started with Soybeans in the warmer and drier áreas. The Delta and Southeast should remain drier this week and producers there should get a lot planted before some rains return this weekend or early next week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 474 and 450 July. Support is at 470, 463, and 457 July, and resistance is at 482, 487, and 491 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 326 and 313 July. Support is at 327, 325, and 320 July, and resistance is at 336, 343, and 350 July.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
Soybeans (CBOT:SN14) and products were higher in early trading on follow through fund buying, but turned lower and closed near the lows of the day oce the fund buying dried up. It was a por close and it is posible that the market has seen a top. There was talk of big farm selling in Brazil and more farm selling in the US on the early rally. Soybeans are getting planterd now, and reports from the country indicate that many farmers are wrapping up Corn planting and moving to Soybeans.
USDA showed good planting progress in the Monday reports, and should show great progress in reports that will be issued on Tuesday after the US holiday. Supplies are flowing from South America and the USDA record import estimate is likely to be confirmed. Supplies will remain tight, but it seems to be posible for imports from Brazil to be very strong as the majors are the ones bringing the Soybeans to the US and they own the port facilities. It will be warm and mostly dry this week, which is beneficial for crop progress.
Speculators overall remain very long Soybeans and Soybean Meal on ideas of tight supplies here in the Midwest, although they have been mostly in a liquidation mode. They have a lot to sell and less reason to hold extreme long positions. Demand for old crop Soybeans is turning weaker and carry spreads have been showing some weakness in recent sessions.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1461, 1457, and 1442 May, and resistance is at 1493, 1496, and 1502 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 495.00 and 508.00 July. Support is at 483.00, 477.00, and 471.00 July, and resistance is at 494.00, 500.00, and 506.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3980 and 3870 July. Support is at 3980, 3950, and 3910 July, with resistance at 4070, 4090, and 4125 July.