Sugar to lose surplus?

Coffee (NYBOT:KCN14)

Coffee closed lower again in light to moderate trading volumes. Origin remained quiet, and demand from roasters was not real strong. Funds and other speculators were the best sellers. The market is still waiting for news of actual harvest yields in Brazil, and the Coffee is coming out now. Wire service reports indicate that Brazil exports remain strong as farmers have been selling supplies from the last crop.However, the stories note that this Coffee is mostly sold now. If so, it could be very hard to find Coffee in Brazil once the harvest is complete.

London was lower on reports of more availability of Coffee from Vietnam. Traders look for more Robusta in the market, but there is talk of less offer from Vietnam as the export pace has been strong lately and as producers are worried that El Nino could hurt the next production. Rains are appearing in Central America that should trigger a new round of flowers and also will help cherries as they start to appear for the coming crop. The región is too dry for best production.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.566 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 160.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get some showers in most áreas, but mostly in Eastern Mexico and all of Central America. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 180.00 July. Support is at 183.00, 177.00, and 170.00 July, and resistance is at 191.00, 195.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2020 and 1955 July. Support is at 2015, 1980, and 1965 July, and resistance is at 2070, 2100, and 2140 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 204.00 and 190.00 September. Support is at 225.00, 223.00, and 215.00 September, and resistance is at 233.00, 238.50, and 240.00 September.



Sugar were lower on follow through speculative selling. Support has been coming from the production losses that are coming from Brazil, but ther market needs demand, too, and there has not been much demand news. Wire reports note that the Indian monsoon is spreading through the Bay of Bengal and seems to be getting off to a normal start.

But, the ISO and others think that next year could be different due to production losses in Brazil. They expect the market to move from surplus production in the world to one where supplies and demand are about in balance. Some private analitical companies think that production could be less than demand next year. The potential for crop losses in Brazil providing support and the current oversupplied market conditions keeping sellers active. There is increased buying interest in world markets as Muslim countries get ready for Ramadan in June, but no demand headlines. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are still rated as mostly good except for Brazil. Crop potential in Russia and Ukraine is called good. 

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1850 and 1925 July. Support is at 1765, 1730, and 1710 July, and resistance is at 1825, 1840, and 1850 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 478.00, 475.00, and 470.00 August, and resistance is at 488.00, 496.00, and 597.00 August.

Next page: Cocoa 

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