Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP).
At this meeting, FRBNY staff are presenting their forecast for U.S. growth, inflation, and unemployment through the end of 2015. Following the presentation, members of the EAP, all of whom are leading economists in academia and the private sector, are asked to critique the staff forecast. Such feedback helps the staff evaluate the assumptions and reasoning underlying their forecast and the key risks to it. Subjecting the staff forecast to periodic evaluation is an important part of the forecasting process; this review informs the staff’s discussions with New York Fed President William Dudley about economic conditions. In the same spirit of inviting feedback, we are sharing a short summary of the staff forecast in this post; for more detail, see the material from the EAP meeting on our website.
Staff Forecast Summary
Here we discuss the New York Fed staff forecast for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation in 2014 and 2015.
From the end of the Great Recession in mid-2009 through mid-2013, the U.S. economy grew at a compound annual rate of 2.2 percent. Then, over the second half of 2013 growth picked up to 3.4 percent (annual rate), reflecting stronger growth of real personal consumption expenditures (PCE), business fixed investment, exports, and inventories. However, in the first quarter of 2014, real GDP was essentially unchanged. The growth contributions from inventories and net exports, which had been positive over the second half of last year, were negative in the first quarter, which was widely anticipated. But in addition, severe winter weather had a significant depressing effect on economic activity, particularly in January and February.
Despite the slow start in the first quarter, the staff forecast anticipates economic growth of around 3 percent (annual rate) over the remainder of 2014, with some additional strengthening to around 3½ percent in 2015. Several key underlying fundamentals of the economy have improved, setting the stage for a firming of growth. Household wealth has been restored, and the deleveraging process is largely over. For the first time since 2008, we are beginning to see growth of total household liabilities. The excess supply of housing has been largely worked off, and home prices have risen more than expected, contributing to higher household wealth. Fiscal restraint at the federal and the state and local levels of government now is, for the most part, behind us. And growth prospects among our major trading partners look somewhat better, particularly in the euro area.
It should be noted, however, that the growth rate anticipated in the forecast is still not as robust as experienced in previous expansions. The recovery of residential investment is likely to continue to be relatively muted, reflecting continued tight mortgage underwriting standards. Similarly, growth of business fixed investment is expected to be only moderate until capacity constraints become binding.
With the economy expected to grow somewhat faster going forward, the staff forecast anticipates somewhat stronger employment growth. From an average of around 190,000 per month from 2013:Q2 through 2014:Q1, average monthly gains of nonfarm payroll employment should move up to around 225,000 over the remainder of 2014, and then advance to around 275,000 in 2015. This presumes growth of productivity in the nonfarm business sector of around 1½ percent (1¼ percent on a GDP basis)—the rate that the staff assumes to be the current trend. With stronger employment growth, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to about 6 percent by the end of 2014, and then to between 5¼ percent and 5½ percent by the end of 2015. This projection anticipates that, as the labor market improves, the labor force participation rate will bottom out in the near future and then rise to 63.4 percent by the end of 2015.