What are corn and beans waiting for?

Grains Analysis

WHEAT(CBOT:ZWN14)

Wheat closed lower again in reaction to reports of cheaper prices being offered from Europe and Russia. Those parts of the world have good production and are now starting to look for buyers. Also weighing on prices were forecasts for more beneficial precipitation in the Great Plains, and especially Kansas, next week. The rains that fell in recent days will improve crop conditions and should help improve ratings next week. On the other hand, it remains too cool and wet for best planting of Spring Wheat in the northern Great Plains and on into Canada, but those áreas should turn warmer starting this weekend. The United States has about the only bad production conditions in the world, and the conditions in the Great Plains should now show at least some stability. Other origins such as the EU and Russia have much better weather and are offering at far cheaper prices.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal. Northern areas should get light showers off and on into next week. Temperatures should average near to below normal, but warmer this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get light precipitation late this week and drier conditions this weekend. Temperatures will be near normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 678 July. Support is at 684, 674, and 669 July, with resistance at 700, 704, and 718 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 796 July. Support is at 792, 784, and 780 July, with resistance at 810, 816, and 827 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 757 July. Support is at 772, 762, and 756 July, and resistance is at 795, 809, and 814 July.
 
 

RICE

Futures closed mixed again yesterday in quiet trading. Cash markets remain very dull, with mills not willing to pay up for what is left of old crop supplies, and with producers more worried about the new crop and not willing to discount prices much if at all. Big rains were seen near Houston and into Louisiana yestrday but the Rice should not be hurt. In fact, the rains could help with the first flush and sabe some producers some money from having to pump less wáter from the ground Export demand is reported to be slow right now. Asian long grain prices are mostly steady to stronger today.

Overnight News: Showers and storms today and tomorrow, then dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1526, 1518, and 1493 July. Support is at 1523, 1520, and 1517 July, with resistance at 1538, 1542, and 1550 July.
 


CORN(CBOT:ZCN14) AND OATS(CBOT:ZON14)

Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher. The markets are caught between Soybeans and Wheat, but Corn is generally working lowr as the crop is getting planted and is starting to emerge. There are demand concerns as well, but overall domestic and export demand has been very good. Wire reports indicate that Ukraine is still planting and that Spring crops planting has fallen behind average. However, the overall progress remains strong, and Corn planting progress in particular remains strong. Only northwest U.S. Corn Belt áreas remain behind, and there is talk that prevent plant will be used in some of these areas. Weather forecasts for planting in the Midwest continue to show cool temperatures, but generally drier conditions after today. Warmer and drier weather should develop in northwestern áreas this weekend that could increase panting progress and keep farmers from switching to Soybeans or going to the prevent plant program. Reports from the field indicate that many farmers can wrap up Corn planting this week and get started with Soybeans in the warmer and drier áreas. Others might need another week to get most of the Corn planted. The Delta and Southeast should remain drier starting this weekend.

Overnight News: Mexico bought 104,400 tons of old crop US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 492 July. Support is at 495, 491, and 487 July, and resistance is at 506, 510, and 519 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 350, 342, and 336 July, and resistance is at 358, 361, and 370 July.
 
 

SOYBEANS (NYBOT:JSN14) AND PRODUCTS

Soybeans and products were higher, with old crop leading the way on ideas of tight supplies again. Futures had traded lowr for the first half of the sesión along with the weakness in Wheat and Corn.

However, many are worried about the potential for bullish export sales nd NOPA crush reports that will be released this morning and decided to cover shorts or use the break to buy for long coverage. Soybeans are getting planterd now, and reports from the country indicate that many farmers are wrapping up Corn planting and moving to Soybeans.

Bears once again note that supplies will be flowing from South America in a big way and that the USDA import estimate is likely to be confirmed. Bulls note that supplies will remain tight even with the imports and also note some strength in domestic basis levels. It seems to be posible for imports from Brazil to be very strong as the majors are the ones bringing the Soybeans to the US and they own the port facilities. It will be cool this week, but drier once the cold front passes the Eastern part of the región today. The US needs some warmer and drier weather to get the Corn and Soybeans planted now, and the forecasts show drier weather is posible for later this week and this weekend. Speculators overall remain very long Soybeans and Soybean Meal on ideas of tight supplies here in the Midwest, although they have been mostly in a liquidation mode. They have a lot to sell and less reason to hold extreme long positions.

Overnight News: China bought 120,000 tons of new crop US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1461, 1457, and 1442 May, and resistance is at 1493, 1496, and 1502 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 477.00, 471.00, and 467.00 July, and resistance is at 490.00, 494.00, and 500.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4120, 4090, and 4060 July, with resistance at 4160, 4180, and 4190 July.

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