Cotton futures were lower in nearby months as USDA showed more than expected ending stocks levels. USDA cut export demand in it estimates on Friday, and now the market is working lower to find new demand interest. Ideas are that it will not take much of a drop in p[rices to find new interest as the US domestic market remains tight. The reports showed the potential for a tight new crop market if the weather does not get better in Texas soon. There was some potential for rain over the weekend and some sever weather. Crop conditions continue to deteriorate in the Texas Panhandle, but other áreas should be in better condition. Weather is much better in the Delta and Southeast, and south Texas has had some rain. Panhandle áreas are under deep stress from drought conditions that should also impact irrigated crops. However, better weather for planting in the Delta and Southeast is expected to continue over the next few days. Brazil conditions are reported to be good in Bahia with warm temperatures and a few showers.
Overnight News: Delta and Southeast áreas will get showers and storms today and tomorrow, then dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather . Temperatures will average mostly below normal. The USDA spot price is 84.18 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.382 million bales, from 0.374 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives. Support is at 90.70, 90.50, and 90.00 July, with resistance of 92.00, 92.30, and 92.90 July.
OJ closed a little higher. Charts show that the market rejected a chance to move lower, but it remains to be seen if traders want to see higher prices. Weather remains generally good in Florida and the next production looks good as the Bloom has come to an end, There is less inventory of FCOJ in Florida despite less demand, a sign of just how severe the Greening Disease has hurt production of oranges in the state. Supplies remain tight, but demand has been weak as consumers find alternatives for Vitamin C. Production áreas in Brazil need more precipitation. Weak overall Florida production and the overall dry weather in Brazil that could impact production there continues to support prices longer term. The greening disease has sharply reduced US Oranges production estimates, and the disease will be around for a few more years as there is no easy cure. Florida harvest conditions remain good. The Valencia harvest is strong. Soil moisture conditions are reported to be mostly good in Florida. Fruit is seen in all areas.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for dry weather early in the week and scattered showers late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should be mostly dry and warm.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 157.00, 155.00, and 152.00 July, with resistance at 164.00, 165.00, and 166.00 July.
Futures closed higher in recovery trading. The market is still waiting for news of actual harvest yields in Brazil, and in the meantime decided that the losses late last week were too much. London was higher as well as traders looked for more Robusta in the market and did not find much. Prices have been generally strong in reaction to estimates showing sharply lower production for Brazil and the potential for a significant supply against demand déficit for the coming year. The Brazil harvest is underway, but there have not been any yield reports yet. The harvest has started early due to advanced maturation of the beans. Vietnam is replanting trees and is now expecting somewhat lower production for the next few years. Offers there have been less lately due to the news of the replanting and as prices in London have been rather stable. Producers have sold at these levels and now want to sell at higher prices. Rains are appearing in Central America that should trigger a new round of flowers and also will help cherries as they start to appear for the coming crop.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.576 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 163.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get some showers in most áreas, but mostly in Eastern Mexico and all of Central America. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 180.00 July. Support is at 183.00, 177.00, and 170.00 July, and resistance is at 190.00, 195.00 and 200.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2015 July, and resistance is at 2150, 2160, and 2190 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 204.00 and 190.00 September. Support is at 223.00, 215.00, and 209.00 September, and resistance is at 232.00, 238.50, and 240.00 September.