Coffee closes higher in recovery trading

 

SUGAR

Sugar traded a little higher after trading both sides of unchanged. The market needs some news and is not finding much. The potential for crop losses in Brazil providing support and the current oversupplied market conditions keeping sellers active. There has been no real news to push prices higher despite the talk of reduced Brazil production. Brazil is at the early harvest and mills are processing for ethanol more than for Sugar. There is Sugar in Brazil and ideas are that there will still be a significant Sugar production surplus against demand for the year in the world market. There is increased buying interest in world markets as Muslim countries get ready for Ramadan in June, but no demand headlines. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are still rated as mostly good except for Brazil. Crop potential in Russia and Ukraine is called good despite the tensions between the two countries. The trading range can hold for the short term, but prices could work lower again once the Ramadan buying is done. 

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1700 and 1640 July. Support is at 1710, 1680, and 1650 July, and resistance is at 1755, 1765, and 1785 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 470.00, 464.00, and 461.00 August, and resistance is at 475.00, 482.00, and 483.00 August.

 

COCOA

Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Futures moved a lot lower late last week, and the market rested yesterday as traders looked for news. Prices continue to work generally lower and away from the chart top on reports of good mid crop production in West Africa. The weather has been favorable and midcrop harvest results have been positive and imply a good to very good mid crop in West Africa. Better than forecast production in West Africa and Asia has been negative for prices. Many analysts expect the market to work higher longer term due to projections of short production against demand over the long term. Midcrop offers are showing in most of West Africa, and prices are trending lower on good volumes on offer. Crop conditions are good in West Africa and generally good in Southeast Asia, although it remains too dry in Malaysia. Malaysian conditions are improving as rains are now more common. The weather is also good in Brazil although more rain would be beneficial.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, with best amounts and coverage in Indonesia. Temperatures should aeaverage near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.392 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2800 July. Support is at 2850, 2840, and 2810 July, with resistance at 2915, 2945, and 2960 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1720 July. Support is at 1770, 1750, and 1720 July, with resistance at 1800, 1825, and 1840 July.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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