Wheat stress continues

Wheat closed lower again in reaction to USDA supply and demand reports and some forecasts for wet weather in the Great Plains. Production of Winter Wheat in the US was below most trade expectations. Ending stocks estimates were also a Little below trade expectations, But, the world data showed more production and ending stocks and was the bearish forcé behond the trade action. The United States has about the only bad production conditions in the world right now and as other origins are offering at far cheaper prices. Weekend weather showed some good raions for Nebraksa and Kansazs, but not that much farther south into the Texas Panhandle.

The USDA crop condition reports this week showed once again that Wheat is getting stressed. Spring Wheat planting remains delayed, but soil moisture will be great once producers are able to work the fields. Longer range forecasts call for cool weather this week. It remains very dry in western section of the Great Plains from Kansas to the south, and these áreas comprise the bulk of the HRW crop. Most northern hemisphere Wheat crops appear to be in good condition, with the área with the most problems located in the central and southern US Great Plains. 

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather, but some showers today in central and eastern areas. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should get showers and storms off and on through the weekend. Temperatures should average near normal today, then near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should get light precipitation today and again this weekend in southern areas. Temperatures will be near normal. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 721, 717, and 710 July, with resistance at 740, 744, and 752 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 865 July. Support is at 828, 816, and 811 July, with resistance at 845, 855, and 857 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 793, 782, and 779 July, and resistance is at 809, 814, and 823 July.


About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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