E-mini S&P daily analysis

For Monday, May 12, 2014

Al Brooks provides bar-by-bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is his analysis for Monday, May 12, 2014.

  • Bar 1 - Gap up but tail so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher, but possible low of the day or high of the day. Might get breakout to new all time high. Pink line = high of last week, blue line = all time high = magnet
  • Bar 2 - Doji but bull body, still always in long from yesterday, but far from moving average so probably not much up before pullback. Ok swing buy or long
  • Bar 3 - Breakout, might go up for 5 more bars or so, but then sideways likely for hour or two
  • Bar 6 - Breakout pullback buy or long but dojis, far above moving average. Better to wait, else need stop below 1. Too early to sell or short
  • Bar 11 - Fail, failure breakout, two legged pullback in a bear move 8, but small pullback bull so low probability sell or short, buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Better to wait to buy or long pullback or for better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell
  • Bar 13 - Breakout pullback buy or long, always in long, but need stop at least 2t below 6 since tight trading range. Possible sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher but better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell
  • Bar 15 - Micro double top, possible high of the day, but tight trading range so better to wait for a strong bear breakout or second entry sell. Trading range more likely with test of 9l or 6l or moving average
  • Bar 18 - Fail, failure breakout, double bottom 9, always in long, but 2 bear bars. Low probability buy or long, need swing stop at least 2t below 6 or 4. Low probability sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher
  • Bar 21 - Lower high. Ok swing sell or short for high of the day, stop above 16. Ok swing buy or long, always in long, stop 2t below 6. Tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop, breakout mode, better to wait
  • Bar 24 - Two legged pullback in a bull move 18, always in long, above moving average, target above, ok swing buy or long, but tight trading range, bad for scalping with stop entries unless using swing stop. 20 bar tight trading range, breakout mode
  • Bar 31 - Breakout pullback buy or long, always in long, ok swing stop, but scale in, then scalp or swing, but just below all time high so might reverse. Small pullback bull

pending chart 3006

Small pullback bull, bull breakout to all time high. For more, see http://brookstradingcourse.com/how-to-trade-manual/day-trading-open and http://brookstradingcourse.com/how-to-trade-manual/trading-breakouts. Might go above high of year and form 60 minimum or minutes wedge top. Less likely, more bull trend above all time high. I think 60% chance may will not go above april and april will be the high of the next several months. May on monthly chart might be outside bar surrounded by inside bars for start of move down to 1700. Since may opened near high of april, odds favor selloff in may. Bulls want a move up to all time high and 1900 top of weekly channel, but more likely the high is in for at least several months. Odds favor trend down to 1700 area, but possible one more new all time high first. Reasonable to consider buying put spreads here or around 1900 for move down to around 1730 bottom of weekly channel within next few months. “Sell in may and go away.”

 

 

[more Bar-by-Bar Analysis, Daily Webinar and Trading Course info at www.brookspriceaction.com and www.brookstradingcourse.com]

About the Author
Al Brooks

Al Brooks, M.D., is author of the Brooks Trading Course (27 hours of videos at BrooksTradingCourse.com), several books on Price action (Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar: The Technical Analysis of Price Action for the Serious Trader, Wiley, 2009, and the 500,000 word, three-book series, Trading Price Action, Wiley, 2012), and numerous articles in Futures Magazine. He also provides live intraday E-mini price action analysis and free end-of-day analysis on www.brookspriceaction.com.

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