Bitcoin's latest move: Less bullish than you think

Today, we’ve seen a move up (this is written before 10:00 a.m. EDT). Not a very strong one, 2.1% so far. Does this change anything as far as our suggested short position is concerned? Not really. The move hasn’t even brought Bitcoin back above $450 and, more importantly, it has taken place on weak volume, weaker than yesterday. So, another day of appreciation on weak volume might just mean that we’re getting closer to the short-term top (if this can even be called a top), and the bearish short-term outlook remains unchanged.

On BTC-e, Bitcoin went 0.2% up yesterday on falling volume. This kind of move doesn’t count as any sort of meaningful indication on its own but considered together with the recent appreciation, it seemed that it was actually more bearish than not.

 

Today, there has been appreciation, 1.4% but the move hasn’t been strong, the volume has been not even half of what was seen yesterday. The 1.4% seen today doesn’t look as anything more than the final stage of a move up and might be followed by declines. If you recall what we wrote yesterday:

Today, we’ve seen some more appreciation (this is written at 10:10 a.m. EDT) but it hasn’t been particularly strong. What is more, the volume is now significantly lower than it was yesterday. Consequently, we don’t view today’s move as bullish. Not only that. We actually view today’s move (so far) as bearish for the short term. 

This seems not to have been invalidated by the events of today (so far). Consequently, we still think that the short speculative positions we suggested yesterday might become profitable in the near future.

Summing up, in our opinion short speculative positions might be the way to go now. 

Trading position (short-term, our opinion): short, stop-loss at $470. We expect the move up to be reversed and more declines to follow in the near future.

To the point: we still support short speculative positions in the Bitcoin market, stop-loss at $470.

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About the Author

Mike McAra is a quantitative analyst focused on the economic reality, not theoretical models. His investment thinking is grounded on empirical evidence and common sense. Mike joined Sunshine Profits in 2009. He develops innovative investment tools, verifies usefulness of popular techniques, and provides thorough internal research. His quantitative and financial background, along with experience in the gold market and personal interest in bitcoin led to the launch of our Bitcoin Trading Alert service.

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