Grains' troubling times

Grains Analysis


Wheat closed lower on profit taking and some demand concerns as dry weather continued in the Great Plains. Futures closed well off the highs as the United States has about the only bad production conditions in the world right now and as other origins are offering at far cheaper prices. 

The USDA crop condition reports this week showed once again that Wheat is getting stressed. USDA should show less production in its estimates on Friday, especially for HRW. SRW conditions are much better, as are White conditions, and production for those crops should be good. 

Spring Wheat planting remains delayed, but soil moisture will be great once producers are able to work the fields. Longer-range forecasts call for better planting weather to develop later next week. It remains very dry in western section of the Great Plains from Kansas to the south, and these areas comprise the bulk of the HRW crop. 

Forecasts also call for very warm temperatures to appear in the western Great Plains this week that could stress the crops trying to make it in the drought areas. There is a chance for light precipitation today, but not enough to really change things that much as the rain should be mostly to the east. Most northern hemisphere Wheat crops appear to be in good condition, with the area with the most problems located in the central and southern US Great Plains.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather, but some showers today in central and eastern areas. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should get showers and storms off and on through the weekend. Temperatures should average near normal today, then near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should get light precipitation today and again this weekend in southern areas. Temperatures will be near normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 766 July. Support is at 724, 721, and 717 July, with resistance at 744, 752, and 761 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 865 July. Support is at 828, 816, and 811 July, with resistance at 855, 857, and 864 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 793, 782, and 779 July, and resistance is at 814, 823, and 827 July.



Futures closed a little lower after another quiet session. The market is waiting for some news to move in one direction of the other. It was a choppy session again and the trading range was very small. The weather is improving after the recent cold and wet conditions in the Delta, and producers are moving to get the Rice in the ground for the most part. Some are considering looking into the prevent plant option instead of planting in May and looking forward to reduced yields. Farmers are offering at higher prices, and bids are improving but finding little interest. New crop prices shown by mills are not that good for producers as they are covering the cost of production but little more in many instances. Domestic cash markets are quiet. Asian long grain prices are mostly steady.

Overnight News: Mostly dry early this week, showers and storms late in the week. Temperatures will average mostly above normal this week.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1550, 1538, and 1534 July, with resistance at 1562, 1565, and 1570 July.



Both markets closed lower on reports from the Corn Belt of extremely active planting. Weather forecasts for planting in the Midwest continue to show good chances to get planting done. There will be some showers and storms today to interrupt progress, but the delay could be just a couple of days. Reports from the field indicate that many farmers can wrap up Corn planting this week and get started with Soybeans in the warmer and drier areas. 

Others might need another week to get most of the Corn planted. The Delta and Southeast should remain drier and planting should be very active as farmers try to beat the late week rains currently in the forecast. US producers will work hard to get as much of the crop planted by the middle of May as possible. However, planting beyond the middle of May might not be that detrimental this year as El Nino is expected to arrive by the middle of the Summer.

Overnight News: Brazil now estimates its Corn production at 75.2 million tons this year.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 510, 500, and 498 July, and resistance is at 519, 522, and 524 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 352, 342, and 336 July, and resistance is at 361, 370, and 376 July.


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