What to expect from grains

Corn (NYBOT:JCN14)

Corn closed higher to start the week with the July contract closing 8-½ cents higher. Crop progress was in line with our expectations at 29% which still lags the 5 year average of 42%. The weather looks good for the next few days and will give farmers an opportunity to get out there and get corn in the ground. The states that are struggling with unfavorable weather are Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, North Dakota. Inspections today were at 48.8 million bushels which is well above the needed amount to meet the USDA projections. We do have some big reports at the end of the week which include crop production and WASDE. Traders will be positioning themselves all week ahead of these reports. July Corn is slightly lower early this session but holding above the 500-502-6 support; look for a continued close above this level to keep the market in a loose uptrend.

Resistance –513**, 517-519-4*, 525-2**, 532-2***

Support –500-502-6**, 495-496-4*, 490-6***, 480**, 474-6***, 465-468** 


Soybeans (NYBOT:JSN14)

Soybeans opened Sunday night higher, before retreating back to the red and closing down 7-½ cents at $14.63 ¼ for the July contract. Crop progress was lower than the expectations, it came in at 5% vs. the expected 7-11% and the 5 year average of 11%. There is still plenty of time to get beans in the field so the concerns at this point remain minimal. Traders will be looking forward to Friday’s USDA report. Inspections today were at 3.7 million bushels which is down from last week’s 9.3. Soybeans are getting hit hard this morning as they are trading well below major support at 1460-4-1462-4; only a close back above here will neutralize the selloff, but the uptrend appears to be broken.

Resistance –1454*, 1462-4-1460-4***, 1473-4-1476*, 1483**, 1497-1500***

Support –1444-4**, 1433-4**, 1426-4**, 1394-4**


Wheat (NYBOT:JWN14)

Chicago wheat for July closed up 13 cents at $7.29 after opening the Sunday night session up 24+ cents. Plant progress came in at expectations but still well behind the 5 year average of 41%. Weather has been hot and is expected to be hot in some areas that has been moving prices and will continue to be a mover. Conditions fell 2% to 31% for good/excellent from last week, fair was down 2% and very poor/poor was up 4% to 38%. This should put some pressure to the upside for the intermediate term. Wheat has retreated nearly 25cents from its Sunday night high after closing below major support at 724-6-725-2 yesterday, only a close back above here will keep the bulls in control. The market is building a possible failure and must close below 718-4 to create momentum to test the 700 level.

Resistance –724-6-725-2**, 740-2-741-6*, 748-6**, 795-4***

Support –718-4*, 708-4*, 698-700***, 684-687-4**, 672-4-674-2**, 661-663-6***


About the Author
Rich Ilczyszyn

Rich Ilczyszyn is Founder and Chief Market Strategist of iiTRADER.com. Rich excels at creating dynamic trading strategies for clients that establish solid positions, while remaining flexible enough to capitalize on market opportunities when they arise. By identifying market trends, breakouts, and failures in a timely fashion, Rich presents clients with the opportunity to realize their objectives while effectively managing their risk.

Rich is featured expert/trader and contributor on CNBC's "Futures Now" Show, and has been quoted in multiple of top-tier publications, including: The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Bloomberg News and Reuters.

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