Cocoa closes higher in recovery trading

COTTON (NYBOT:CTN14)

Futures were higher as very little to no rain was reported in West Texas and as there is none in the forecast for this week. There is talk that the planting delays seen so far this year will lead to a late crop and stress the current supplies even more. Weather is improving in the Delta and Southeast, but remains too dry and warm in much of Texas.

Panhandle areas are under deep stress from drought conditions that should also impact irrigated crops. Farmers made very little progress last week as weather in Texas and the Southeast has not been that good. However, better weather for planting in the Delta and Southeast is expected to continue over the next few days. Brazil conditions are reported to be good in Bahia with warm temperatures and a few showers. 

Overnight News: Delta and Southeast áreas will get dry conditions through Wenesday, then showers and storms. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather through this week, but showers are posible on Thursday. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA spot price is 87.50 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.334 million bales, from 0.329 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 96.25 and 99.75 July. Support is at 93.80, 93.30, and 92.70 July, with resistance of 95.10, 96.75, and 98.00 July.

 

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJN14)

Futures closed higher in quiet trading as traders prepared for new USDA updates at the end of the week. Ideas are that USDA can show unchanged or lower production in Florida once again.. Trends are mostly down. Supplies remain tight, but demand has been weak. Consumers are finding alternatives to the relatively high priced juice.

Production áreas in Brazil need more precipitation, and will be mostly dry this week. Weak overall Florida production and the overall dry weather in Brazil that could impact production there continues to support prices longer term. The greening disease has sharply reduced US Oranges production estimates, and the disease will be around for a few more years as there is no easy cure. Florida harvest conditions remain good. The Valencia harvest is strong. Soil moisture conditions are reported to be mostly good in Florida. Fruit is seen in all areas. 

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should be mostly dry and warm.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 155.00 and 147.00 July. Support is at 160.00, 157.00, and 155.00 July, with resistance at 163.00, 164.00, and 165.00 July.


COCOA  

Futures closed higher in recovery trading. It was a light to moderate volume sesión in New York with London closed for a holiday. Price action has been weaker lately on reports of good mid crop production in West Africa. Mid Crop harvest results have been positive and imply a good to very good mid crop in West Africa and bigger than expected offers. Better than forecast production in West Africa and Asia has been negative for the bulls, but ideas of strong and increasing demand over time has been bullish. Many analysts expect the market to work higher longer term due to projections of short production against demand over the long term. Midcrop offers are showing in most of West Africa. Crop conditions are good in West Africa and generally good in Southeast Asia, although it remains too dry in Malaysia. The weather is also good in Brazil

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, with best amounts and coverage in Indonesia. Temperatures should aeaverage near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.421 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2800 July. Support is at 2900, 2880, and 2840 July, with resistance at 2945, 2960, and 2980 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1780 and 1720 July. Support is at 1800, 1790, and 1770 July, with resistance at 1840, 1850, and 1860 July.

 

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