Al Brooks provides bar by bar analysis on a five-minute chart of the previous day’s prices action in the E-mini S&P 500. This is the analysis for Friday, May 2, 2014.
- Bar 1 - Big doji outside up bar in yesterday trading range, but still always in long from yesterday rally, and top of channel above. Pink line = high of last week and today is fri so might be magnet in final 2 hours
- Bar 2 - Close on high, still always in long, ok swing, but stop below 1 so trade small
- Bar 3 - Double top high of yesterday, fail, failure breakout, but big tail, 2 consecutive bull bars, probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower
- Bar 4 - Fail, failure breakout high of yesterday, parabolic wedge 79 3, good reversal bar but tight channel. Swing only but probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower since still always in long, strong 1 2
- Bar 6 - Breakout pullback buy or long, ok buy or long for test top of channel, but 4 dojis so need swing stop. Breakout mode
- Bar 8 - Big bull bar, close on high, always in long, trend channel line magnet above, more up
- Bar 10 - Fail, failure breakout high of yesterday second entry sell at top of channel, possible high of the day, but strong enough breakout so probably buy below or buyers at the low of the bar and probably scaling in lower. Need wide stop and scale in, swing of scalp
- Bar 11 - Breakout pullback buy or long but 2 dojis, top of channel so probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher for scalp. Only buy or long if wide stop and scale in, swing of scalp
- Bar 13 - Two legged pullback in a bull move breakout pullback buy or long but five tick failure above moving average and 6 came within 2t so probably sell above or sellers at the high of the bar and probably scaling in higher and more sideways to down. Trading range pa so should pullback soon
- Bar 14 - Second entry sell but tight trading range so swing or wait.
- Bar 15 - Big bear bar, probably more down to bottom of channel
I wrote this on Friday, so the high of last week was magnet all day. I think there's a 60% chance May will not go above April and April will be the high of the next several months. May on monthly chart might be outside bar surrounded by inside bars for start of move down to 1700. Since near high of April, odds favor early selloff in May. Bulls want a move up to all time high and 1900 top of weekly channel, but more likely the high is in for at least several months. Odds favor trend down to 1700 area, but possible one more new all time high first. Reasonable to consider buying put spreads here or around 1900 for move down to around 1730 bottom of channel within next few months (”short in May and go away”).