Warm temps could stress wheat


Wheat closed higher as the Kansas Wheat Tour got underway and saw crops with less yield potential than last year. Support also came from forecasts for little, if any, beneficial rain will be seen in the Great Plains through the weekend. It remains very dry in western section of the Great Plains from Kansas to the south, and these áreas comprise the bulk of the HRW crop.

Forecasts also call for very warm temperatures to appear in the western Great Plains this week that could stress the crops trying to make it in the drought áreas. Ideas are that USDA can show more crop deterioration in its updates this afternoon. Ukraine remains a feature for the market. Exports are flowing with no problems, but traders continue to watch the situation for any changes. There are worries that Ukraine farmers will have trouble financing plkanting, and at least some of these worries appeaer to be justified as Banks are said to be making credit much harder to obtain. Most northern hemisphere Wheat crops appear to be in good condition, with the área with the most problems located in the central and southern US Great Plains.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near normal. Northern areas should be mostly dry through the weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should get light precipitation this week in southern áreas, otherwise will be dry. Temperatures will be near to below normal. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 736 July. Support is at 709, 697, and 684 July, with resistance at 717, 718, and 721 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 810 and 865 July. Support is at 792, 780, and 763 July, with resistance at 804, 810, and 816 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 771 July. Support is at 752, 739, and 734 July, and resistance is at 763, 772, and 779 July.



Futures rallied as some big storms moved through Delta production áreas and kept farmers out of the fields. Ideas are that little fieldwork will get done the rest of this week, although some áreas in Arkansas are done planting and welcoming the rains. Mississippi remains farthest behind. Most producers remain focused on planting and not on marketing crops. New crop prices shown by mills are not that exciting for producers at this time as they are covering the cost of production but little more in many instances. Planting progress improved last week in the northern Delta with somewhat drier weather, but will be slow again now as rains return. Producers along the Gulf Coast are done with planting and are seeing some rains, but Mississippi remains behind. Domestic cash markets are quiet. Asian long grain prices are steady, but Thai prices were lower last week as the government auctioned more Rice.

Overnight News: Some showers and storms this week, with big rains likely early in the week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. 

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1560, 1575, and 1584 July. Support is at 1549, 1544, and 1534 July, with resistance at 1557, 1562, and 1565 July.



Both markets closed higher, with Corn (NYBOT:JCN14) leading the way on ideas that rains in the Midwest this week and this weekend could delay fieldwork. Longer range forecasts are more mixed, so there will be some potential for fieldwork toget done and for crops to be plante don time. Improvement could come as son as this weekend as the worst of the rain has moved east. Farmers should be active with fieldwork again in áreas to the south of Chicago as son as this weekend. Farmers to the north were active with preparations, but there was a lot of rain up there to keep any ouside work to a minimum. Big storms in the Delta and Southeast are keeping many producers in these áreas out of the fields as well, and some of these producers might think now about changing to Soybeans. US producers will work hard to get as much of the crop planted by the middle of May as posible, but need drier weather to get the job done on time. However, planting beyond the middle of May might not be that detrimental this year as El Nino is expected to arrive by the middle of the Summer. El Nino often produces a cooler and wetter Summer for the Midwest. It is likely that Corn planted área can expand from the USDA estimates due to current higher prices and if the weather stays relatively good.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 532 and 554 July. Support is at 513, 504, and 499 July, and resistance is at 524, 530, and 536 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 378 and 398 July. Support is at 362, 353, and 351 July, and resistance is at 376, 380, and 383 July.



Soybeans (NYBOT:JSN14) closed higher on what appeared to be fund buying and on little in the way of news. There did not seem to be much news to support the Bulls. There was more talk of Chinese cancellations amid big supplies in the country and its ports and amid increasing financing problems and reports of ships being loaded with Soybeans and Soybean Meal for the US. Ideas are that many of these shipments will find their way here, and wire reports have noted some new arrivals in the last week. Chinese markets are starting to recover, but the amounts of Soybeans already bought imply that the country will probly stay out of the market for the next couple of months. New crop months were hurt by forecasts for cooler and wetter weather in US production áreas for the next few days that can keep planting progress slow for Corn and forcé some producers to think about switching to Soybeans. The same is true for produceers of Cotton or Rice in the Delta and Southeast. Speculators overall remain very long Soybeans and Soybean Meal on ideas of tight supplies here in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1520 and 1576 July. Support is at 1496, 1490, and 1472 May, and resistance is at 1521, 1532, and 1544 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 508.00 July. Support is at 485.00, 478.00, and 473.00 July, and resistance is at 498.00, 504.00, and 510.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4250, 4235, and 4200 July, with resistance at 4345, 4365, and 4395 July.


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