Forget about the Fed decision today and forget about Russia and the Ukraine and even Libya. The Energy Information Administration report should take center stage! Once again it seems that record US oil supply is calming the global oil market. Another 3 million barrel build in U.S. inventory as reported by the American Petroleum Institute putting U.S. stocks above 400 million barrels for the first time ever. This is sending oil lower even as the Ukraine is still in turmoil. This comes the day after North Dakota celebrated the billionth barrel of oil from the Bakken shale field! That is fracking unbeliable. Even the threat by Vladimir Putin to cut US oil companies out of Russia is not shaking this market that at this moment that is focused more on a glut of supply than some undefined threat. While Shell has a lot to lose so too does our buddy Vlad. He better think twice before closing out the US because he may need their fracking technology. Maybe they should tell him to go fracking himself.
The API also reported that U.S. gas stocks fell by 49,000 barrels and distillate stocks up by 688,000 barrels. Not as exciting as the crude build.
The Fed is meeting and it seems we hardly care. The Market is convinced that this will be a boring meeting with no real changes to policy or outlook. It is unlikely they will acknowledge Russia Ukraine risks or even risks that tightening U.S. policy may have on the rest of the global economy.