What's in store for grains?

Grains Analysis


Wheat closed higher on ideas that little, if any, beneficial rain will be seen in the Great Plains today and through the weekend. More rain is posible in the Great Plains today and would be beneficial to crop development and condition, and some light precipitation should move into the Great Plains this weekend, but will most likely miss the driest areas. USDA showed roughly stable Winter Wheat conditions, and the overall condition might improve with more moisture in the Great Plains this week.

Traders are keeping an eye on Russia and Ukraine. For now it looks like exports are flowing with no problems. It will not be much of a market factor now unless exports are disrupted or something happens to planting progress. Most northern hemisphere Wheat crops appear to be in good condition, with the área with the most problems located in the central and southern Great Plains. 

The southern Great Plains should see mostly dry weather this week and some precipitation starting Sunday. Temperatures should average near normal. Northern areas should see showers today and tomorrow, then showers and storms again on Sunday. Temperatures should average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should get precipitation the rest of this week, then a dry weekend. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Iran bought 60,000 tons of Russian Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 663, 659, and 636 May, with resistance at 687, 695, and 711 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 730, 724, and 717 May, with resistance at 749, 753, and 764 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 708, 700, and 688 May, and resistance is at 730, 741, and 748 May.



Prices closed near unchanged in slow trading. The cash market remains quiet in the South. Short term trends are down on the charts. Producers remain committed to fieldwork and do not appear interested in selling. Planting progress should improve this week in the northern Delta with somewhat drier weather. Producers along the Gulf Coast are done with planting and those in Texas are wanting rain. There has been too much rain in Lousiana and Mississippi, but this weekend looks much drier. Asian long grain prices are steady to firmer.

Overnight News: Some showers today and tomorrow, then drier. Temperatures will average near normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 May. Support is at 1516, 1508, and 1500 May, with resistance at 1527, 1532, and 1539 May.



Corn (NYBOT:JCK14) closed higher on weather forecasts for the Midwest that call for periods of light precipitation and cooler temperatures into the weekend. Traders were a little disappointed in the USDA progress reports as progress was slower tan expected and ideas are that progress cn remain slow this week.

However, it was difficult to contact producers again yesterday in southern sections of the Midwest and into the Mid South, a sign that they were busy working in the fields. Meanwhile, planting has been active near the Gulf coast. Northern Delta áreas have been too wet for much fieldwork to get done, but some fieldwork was posible over the last couple of days and can continue for much of the week. Getting a large part of the crop planted in the next couple of weeks should allow time for the crop to make very good yields, and current weather forecasts do not imply that there will be any longer term adverse weather coming. It is likely that Corn planted área can expand from the USDA estimates due to current higher prices and if the weather stays relatively good.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 501, 493, and 486 May, and resistance is at 507, 519, and 526 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 395, 391, and 386 May, and resistance is at 414, 424, and 430 May.



Soybeans (NYBOT:JSK14) closed lower in nearby months again on more talk of Chinese cancellations amid big supplies in the country and its ports and amid increasing financing problems. Ideas are that many of these shipments will find their way here. A couple of shipments have been reported to have arrived along the Gulf Coast and Soybean Meal and Soybeans are reported to be on the way to Wilmington, NC. Reports indicate that more can arrive in May and June.

Chinese Banks have tightened credit available for Soybeans purchases and now are said to be demanding big down payments. The US market could end up with plenty of Soybeans if all the cancelled shipments from China move to the US, but that probably will not happen. New crop months were supported by forecasts for cooler and wetter weather in US production áreas for the next few days that can keep planting progress slow. Speculators overall remain very long Soybeans and Soybean Meal on ideas of tight supplies here in the Midwest, but are moving to lighten those positions. Bull spreads in Soybeans have turned weaker for the past week. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1461, 1456, and 1450 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1504, and 1512 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 465.00, and 462.00 May, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 496.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4180, 4110, and 4080 May, with resistance at 4300, 4320, and 4370 May.

NEXT: Canola and Dairy

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