What's in store for grains?

Grains Analysis


Canola was lower on follow through fund selling. Speculators were the best sellers and were said to be liquidating long positions. Farmers were sellers.  Commercials were scale down buyers. Trends are down on the charts. There is a lot of Canola out there for them to buy and they are waiting for price corrections. StatsCan will issue its plantings report today, and ideas are that producers in Canada can plant about 19.9 million acres of Canola, up about 1.0 million acres from last year. Palm Oil was near unchanged as traders wait for new export datatomorrow. Export data from private sources has been disappointing so far this month. Ideas are that export data will improve in the short term as demand for Ramadan increases. The weather feaures showers in Malaysia and showers and storms in Indonesia.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 443.00 and 427.00 May. Support is at 442.00, 439.00, and 428.00 May, with resistance at 454.00, 459.00, and 468.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2740 and 2830 July. Support is at 2650. 2610, and 2600 July, with resistance at 2700, 2745, and 2760 July.



Milk and products were higher again. Longer term bullish trends remain intact. Some new domestic demand is starting to surface as the buy side tries to take advantige of somewhat lower prices. Milk supplies should increase for the short term and should translate into stronger production of Cheese, Butter, and dried products. Butter prices are strong overall as domestic demand remains strong, but producers have been able to build inventories in recent weeks and will probably be able to increase inventories now over time.

Prices last week were lower in cash markets and remain under some pressure this week Cheese production is steady to higher with demand for products reported strong and cash market prices are mixed. Producers will try to build inventory as Milk supplies increase Milk and dried products demand is called steady. New Zealand production remains strong on the South Island, but is dropping on the North Isalnd as conditions are dry. Australian production is dropping in line with seasonal trends. European dairy production is increasing and is above a year ago. Prices are starting to trend weaker for Milk and products. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 2225, 2180, and 2165 May, and resistance is at 2275, 2300, and 2325 May. Trends in Cheese are mixed. Support is at 214.00, 210.00, and 209.00 May, with resistance at 217.00, 220.50, and 224.00 May. Trends in Butter are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 181.00, and 180.00 May, and resistance is at 187.00, 188.00, and 191.00 May.


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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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