Weather and currency give grain complex a lift


Corn closed 7 ½ cents higher after opening in the red after concerns of weather turned funds bullish. Funds were estimated buyers of roughly 7,000 contracts. Export sales are estimated to come in between 500 and 800 tmt. Crop progress is already behind the five year historical average and weather forecasts are pushing grains higher. We get the feeling that at this point it should not be the focal point, we are on similar pace to last year where we ended up planting near record acres. Corn has pressed slightly higher early in today’s session finding major resistance in the July contract at 513; a close above here will likely encourage further buying even ahead of May’s option expiration tomorrow. Support will come in at the session low of 508 in the July contract; a close below here will likely lead to further selling in the short term as the May contract hugs the 500 level and just below.

Resistance –513***, 525-2**, 532-2***

Support – 500-502-6**, 495*, 490-6***, 480**, 474-6***, 465-468**



May beans closed down 11 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 3,000 contracts. Soybeans exports are expected to come in between -200 and 100 tmt. China continues to throw an unknown wrench into the market. Soybean imports from South America increased again. China is still rumored to be cancelling up to 2 mmt. Keep an eye on open interest on the options that expire this week. Soybeans are little changed this morning as the July contract remains inside of first support and first resistance; play the levels but be sure to manage risk to the downside, a close below 1460-4 will lead to a deeper failure.

Resistance – 1473-4-1476***, 1483*, 1498-1500*, 1512*, 1521-1526-2***

Support –1462-4-1460-4**, 1444-4**, 1426-4**



Wheat markets traded higher all day on increased concerned in Ukraine with the May contract closing up 3 ½ cents. Funds were light buyers during the session estimated at only 200 contracts. Wheat export sales are expected to come in between 200 and 400 tmt. Russian farmers have planted much more wheat this year with numbers around 4.1 million hectares which is about 1.4 million more than last year. July wheat is much nearly 10 cents higher this morning as it chewed through swing highs on the week after the Sundaynight open. The chart pattern is beginning to show a nice bottom with a higher low; look for a close above the 700 level to put the bulls back in control in the short term.


Resistance –698-700***, 718-4**, 725-2*, 748-6**, 795-4***

Support – 684-687-4**, 672-4-674-2**, 661-663-6***, 656-5***, 641-2**, 636-4**, 610-620****

About the Author
Rich Ilczyszyn

Rich Ilczyszyn is Founder and Chief Market Strategist of Rich excels at creating dynamic trading strategies for clients that establish solid positions, while remaining flexible enough to capitalize on market opportunities when they arise. By identifying market trends, breakouts, and failures in a timely fashion, Rich presents clients with the opportunity to realize their objectives while effectively managing their risk.

Rich is featured expert/trader and contributor on CNBC's "Futures Now" Show, and has been quoted in multiple of top-tier publications, including: The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Bloomberg News and Reuters.

Follow Rich on Twitter: @iiTRADER

comments powered by Disqus
Check out Futures Magazine - Polls on LockerDome on LockerDome