Farmers getting new crop in ground

Fundamental ag report

Corn (CBOT:CK14)

Fundamental Support: As should be expected, planters starting moving over the long three day weekend and the first trading day results in selling. This is something that many could see coming, if there is any surprise, it is how much selling was seen today. Analysts spent the day session expecting to see a 9% planting pace number today but it is likely that sellers were looking for more around 14 – 15%. Actual planting progress was a disappointing 6%. Funds were quiet once again which allows for moderate size selling to result in a decent size move lower. Funds have now been quiet for over 2 weeks….Ryan Ettner

Old crop traders:

  • July corn(CBOT:CN14) uptrend line crossing at 495 1/4 was taken out today
  • Corn shipments reported today were a marketing year high
  • Next July corn support is 480 1/4

New crop traders:

  • The forecast suggests a continued active planting pace for most of the Midwest
  • Analysts’ estimate was for a planting pace of 9% today compared to 14% five-year average
  • Traders likely sold looking for more around 14% to 15% any lower could be seen as disappointing
  • December corn(CBOT:CZ14) fell right to the uptrend line support crossing today at 487

Bulls:

  • Look to buy today’s break in the overnight market looking for a turnaround Tuesday
  • Consider trading December where the uptrend line held

Bears:

  • If the forecast suggests planters will keep moving sell all bounces for now
  • A turnaround Tuesday bounce could offer a quick opportunity to be short again

Trade Recommendations:

  • (4/21) Sell December corn 499, risk to 510, objective 482
  • (4/21) Bought December corn 493 1/2, risk 483, objective 499


Soybean
(CBOT:SK14)

Fundamental Support: Soybean bulls tried to push the market higher Sunday night coming out of the three day weekend and were successful early in the session.  By the morning, market bears had gained the upper hand and pushed the market lower. Once the pit opened, the selling accelerated and pushed the market 28 lower at one time.  By mid-session the market recouped some of the day’s losses as it looked like some in the trade were buying into ‘turnaround Tuesday early” New news to trade was limited so their just was much to feed the bull and that no doubt lead to some profit taking.

The biggest story out there was news that Barclays was exiting the commodity business. Unnamed sources tell Reuters newswire it would exit or sell much of its energy, metal, and agriculture business arms. This follows similar moves from Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. Some of today’s pressure could have derived from them liquidating positions or at least from traders trying to get in front of them liquidating. Volume was lower than normal due to many world traders were absent today for the Easter holiday. Today’s weekly export inspections came in at the low end of the expected range which was 135,000 to 350,000 tonnes. Exports came in at 138,777 tonnes. Last week’s exports came in at 267,939 tonnes.  Even with today’s selloff the trend in the market continues to be up. A close below $14.44 basis the July contract would have to be taken out to take out the long term up trend line and turn the chart negative…Jim McCormick

  • Stand Aside

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