China's sweet on sugar

COTTON (NYBOT:CTK14)

Futures were mostly a little lower on forecasts for better planting weather this week and on ideas of weaker demand. The Southeast and Delta have seen a lot of rain recently, but should turn drier this week. Meanwhile, some beneficial precipitation was seen in West Texas over the weekend. Demand is a problem as the market as China keeps moving to reduce its government supplies. Other buyers ha e been buying, but not in the amounts China can buy when things are flowing there. The governmernt is releasing some of its supplies to millers at competitive prices when compared to imports. Brazil conditions are reported to be good in Bahia with warm temperatures and a few showers. India might have some production problems this year as El Nino is developing and might bring less monsoon rains to the country.

Overnight News: Delta and Southeast áreas will get mostly dry weather through the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry weather most of this week and a few showers on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is 85.33 ct/lb. today. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.292 million bales, from 0.284 million yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 9% planted, from 8% last week, 10% last year, and 12% average. 

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 89.20, 88.60, and 88.00 May, with resistance of 90.00, 91.30, and 91.70 May.
 

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJK14)

Futures closed lower on what appeared to be some long liquidation. Price action overall is mixed as the market has been consolidating after the recent rally and needs some new bullish input to work higher. Traders are back talking about weaker demand again and also about some showers that were reported in Brazil production areas over the weekend. Production áreas there need more precipitation, but will not get much more this week. Weak overall Florida production and the overall dry weather in Brazil that could impact production there continues to support prices longer term. The greening disease has sharply reduced US Oranges production estimates, and the disease will be around for a few more years as there is no easy cure. Weaker demand helps offset the losses from less production in Florida and also Brazil as consumers look to alternatives. Florida harvest conditions remain good. The Valencia harvest is strong. Soil moisture conditions are reported to be mostly good in Florida. Fruit is seen in all areas.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should be mostly dry and warm, but a few showers are posible this week.  

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 175.00 May. Support is at 162.00, 160.00, and 157.00 May, with resistance at 167.00, 169.00, and 172.00 May.
 

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCK14)

Futures closed lower in New York as London and Sao Paulo were closed. The Brazil harvest is underway and this news is pushing would be buyers to the sidelines. No data has been reported yet as Brazil was on holiday late last week and again yesterday. Overall production is expected to be sharply lower after the drought in Coffee áreas during January and February. Conditions were more stable in March, and some rains have been reported to help with the next crop production in the last week or so. The harvest has started early due to advanced maturation of the beans, and some harvesting has already been done in some areas. The main part of the harvest could start in early May instead of the end of the month as would be normal. The Conillon harvest in northern Brazil is already started. London was a little lower.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.582 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 168.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get some showers in most áreas, but will be mostly dry. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 194.50, 188.50, and 183.00 July, and resistance is at 206.00, 211.50 and 214.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2050 and 1980 July. Support is at 2060, 2020, and 1980 July, and resistance is at 2155, 2175, and 2215 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 238.50, 231.00, and 223.50 September, and resistance is at 255.00, 256.00, and 259.00 September.
 

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBK14)

Futures were higher in resonse to bigger tan expected demand from China during March. China imported 411,132 tons of Sugar in March, about doublé the pace of the previous year., Calendar year to date imports are now 863,563 tons, up 63.3% from last year. Ideas that the Brazil harvest is underway is keeping the market in a trading range, even with better demand. World weather conditions are generally good and have improved a little in Brazil as some showers have been reported in the last few days. It will be drier there this week to help promote good harvest progress. El Nino is probably coming that could hurt yields and disrupt the harvest later in the year, but for now the drier weather promotes rapid harvest progress. Big El Nino rains in Brazil during harvest could dilute Sugar content and hurt quality and overall production potential. On the other hand, dry weather could affect Indian and perhaps Southeast Asian Sugar production.  

Overnight News: Brazil could see some dry conditions this week and near to above normal tempertures. USDAsaid that U.S. Sugarbeets are 11% planted, from 5% last week, 16% last year, and 29% average. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1720, 1710, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1765, 1790, and 1800 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 458.00, and 454.00 August, and resistance is at 467.00, 479.00, and 487.00 August.

 
COCOA (NYBOT:CCK14)

Futures closed lower in New York as London was closed. Charts show that the markets remain in a big trading range, but short term trends might have turned up on Thursday. Better than forecast production in West Africa and Asia has kept the rally from extending beyond the current highs. Midcrop offers are showing in most of West Africa. Bears have not been able to break futures from the current sideways range as overall the market remains tight on supplies and with enough demand to keep things that way. Crop conditions are good in West Africa and generally good in Southeast Asia, although it reamins a little too dry in Malaysia. The weather is also good in Brazil.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, with best amounts and coverage in Indonesia. Temperatures should aeaverage near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 5.270 million bags. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2960, 2920, and 2900 July, with resistance at 3035, 3050, and 3065 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1840, and 1825 July, with resistance at 1890, 1900, and 1930 July.

About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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