Eurodollar curve hit hard

There would have been those expecting a ‘risk-off’ long holiday weekend bid to trade today. Instead, the Treasury curve continues to flatten (5-30 in another 3bp to 176) and the belly of the Eurodollar curve is once again hard hit. EDM6 is off 6.5 bps and has returned to the range, which bounded trade for the two weeks following the post-March FOMC meeting correction. There should be ample wood to chop between this 98.16-.28 consolidation band. It bears noting again, that record net-short Eurodollar positions held by CFTC described ‘non-commercial’ accounts, often referred to as ‘large spec’ escaped the fate of the last few years where excessive short position taking was met by eventually too soft an economy.

 

About the Author

Martin McGuire, managing director at TJM Institutional Services

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