E-mini S&P 500: Looking to sell into today's rally early
Equities continued higher through yesterday’s session as the S&P 500 (CME:ESM14) reached a high of 1857. The market has been soft heading into this morning, trading 10 points from yesterday’s high to 1847.25. Google and IBM missed earnings yesterday but sentiment was likely offset by Janet Yellen’s comments that the central bank has a “continuing commitment” to supporting the economy.
Look for resistance to remain at 1857.50 early but a solid weekly jobless claims number and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will likely send the market testing major resistance at 1866-67.75; a close above here will signal an upside breakout. There are several support levels below today’s low bringing major support at 1840.75-42.75 on the day; a close below here will signal a failure.
Resistance- 1857.50**, 1866-1867.75***, 1874-75.50**
Pivot - 1850.75-51.25
Support – 1840.75-1842.75**, 1837.25**, 1830**, 1820.00-1823**, 1808.75***, 1800-1803**, 1789.25***
Crude: We could see "shorts cover" pushing the market higher
Crude oil (NYMEX:CLK14) still has nearly twice the volume early this morning; we will look to use June to begin next week. Option expiration came and went yesterday, the market put in an early new high reaching 104.99 but backed off into the middle of the session closing at 103.03. EIA data showed a massive build in Crude stocks at over 10 million barrels 2.25 was expected.
The market has continued to trade higher off of yesterday’s close as we head into a long weekend; which should bring a path of least resistance higher as traders are locked out of the market completely tomorrow while tension is still brewing in Ukraine. A close below yesterday’s 103 will keep the bulls out of control, but only a close below 102.00-102.25 and furthermore 100.82 will show a failure. A move back above previous at 104.55 will provide early bullish momentum. Lastly, traders must watch the Dollar which is weaker this morning after failing at the 80 level, continued weakness will be supportive to the crude market.
Resistance– 104.55***, 105.62**, 106.39**, 112.24****
Support – 103.81**, 103.42*, 102.71*, 102.00-102.25**, 101.60**, 101.18*, 100.82***