The Tatje Report: April 16th 2014
Following a rejection of previous resistance around 9886, the yen has since pulled back and looks to begin a new digestive move lower. With new lows being confirmed by relatively lower readings in the RSI, the recent weakness in price appears to be a legitimate reversal. Furthermore, the 20-period SMA has recently crossed below the 50-period, generating a “sell” signal and thus, confirming the near-term negative momentum in the yen. An initial downside target could be seen at support around 9750 followed by the 9730 level.
This market has been in a bit of a digestive range over the past few weeks and, if price intends to retest the lows of this range, price could see a move as far down as the 96.80 – 97.76 range and potentially even the double bottom around 9600. The directional bias in this market remains neutral with near-term momentum favoring a bearish argument below the 9813-9822 area on the chart.
Japanese Yen, 30-minute Bar Chart (e-Signal)
Despite relatively quiet trading as of late, prices of corn still appear to be bullish as the chart continues to show higher lows and higher highs in price. The market has been digesting around the 500’0 level for the past few days and will need to close above resistance in the coming days if traders are to see any sort of upside breakout in the next week or so.
Ideally, a close above 507’0 would add to the near-term bullish momentum and a close above 514’4 could alert traders to a potential upside breakout in corn. Both the intermeidate-term directional bias and momentum remains positive above the 492’6 area and buying corrective dips that terminate above this level could offer traders a favorable entry level from which to get long. Furthermore, there is also an intermeidate-term ascending trendling that intersects price around 496’0 today. In the event of a pullback to this trendline, traders should look for this technical level to provide additonal support to the market.
Corn, 30-minute Bar Chart (e-Signal)
Gold prices had a rough outing yesterday as prices fell sharply before eventually consolidating at the previously mentioned technical area from 1297.0 – 1299.4. Ideally, if price is going to gather itself and mount a retest of the most recent price peak, then price should hold above the 1297.0 pivot on the chart. Any weakness in gold should not surpass the 1293.0 level and, in the event that the market takes out yesterday’s low, traders should anticipate further downside follow-through, potentially targeting the 1278.0 pivot.
Gold was making progress in the month of April putting in higher lows and higher highs before the recent correction; however, so long as price stays above the previous low put in on 4/1, there is still hope for an intermediate-term direction shift in gold. Until then, continue to monitor price structure and look for well-supported trading opportunties in this market. Until gold can estbalish a firm directional bias, there will continue to be valid trading opportunities on either side of this market.
Gold, 30-minute Bar Chart (e-Signal)