U.S. orange production hit by greening disease


Sugar futures were lower on ideas of weak demand. Demand for world Sugar is said to be very light right now and the market seems to be looking for new buyers. Ideas are that most buyers have good coverage for now. Dry weather in Brazil remains an important market feature. Some showers were seen in production areas over the last couple of days. Forecasts now call for dry conditions to return through this week. Most other Sugar production areas around the world are in good condition. Futures remain in the overall trading range, and the fundamentals suggest that the range can hold for now, although futures could start to move to the lower end of the trading range in the short term. The Brazil crop needs regular rains after getting off to a very dry start. Dry conditions will return after today and crop stress is seen. There are worries that El Nino is starting and that it would reduce rains in India, but increase rains in Brazil. Thailand has been selling Sugar with steady to lower differentials. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good.

Overnight News: Brazil could see some showers today, then dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1700 and 1640 July. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1685 July, and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1800 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 454.00 and 442.00 August. Support is at 461.00, 458.00, and 455.00 August, and resistance is at 470.00, 477.00, and 478.00 August.



Cocoa closed slightly lower in low to moderate volume trading. Charts show that the markets remain in a big trading range. New grind data will appear soon to show demand and could force a trend change either higher or lower. Traders expect a year-to-year increase of 3% in the U.S. grind. Better than forecast production in West Africa and Asia has kept the rally from extending beyond the current highs. Midcrop offers have appeared in Nigeria and are also appearing in Brazil. Bears have not been able to break futures from the sideways longer-term range as overall the market remains tight on supplies and with enough demand to keep things that way. Mid crop conditions seem good in West Africa and generally good in Southeast Asia, although it remains a little too dry in Malaysia. The weather is also good in Brazil, with the midcrop flowering under favorable conditions.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, with best amounts and coverage in Indonesia. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.075 million bags. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2975, 2960, and 2920 July, with resistance at 3035, 3050, and 3065 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1860, 1840, and 1825 July, with resistance at 1890, 1900, and 1930 July.



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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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