Looking for the market to rally today
The E-mini S&P 500 has consolidated overnight retesting resistance at 1834.50 as we head into this morning. The market saw a volatile session yesterday that reached a high of 1828 just shy of resistance and then proceeded lower hitting out two star level ahead of the close right at 1808.75. Within the last 30 minutes of the session the market reversed once again closing at 1824.50. Emerging markets were down early today following news that China’s money supply grew at the slowest pace on record, signaling a slowing economy. Investors and traders alike await CPI data, NY Empire State Manufacturing, a Yellen press conference, which will be complimented by a larger slate of data releases this morning. A close above major resistance at 1830-32 will help put the bulls in control but still the 50 day moving average comes in at 1837.75. The 100 day moving average comes in at 1818 and a close below here will reinforce a lower trade.
Resistance: 1834.50*, 1838**, 1843.50**, 1850.75-51.25**, 1857.50*, 1866-1867.75***
Support: 1820.50-1823*, 1818**, 1808.75**, 1800-1803**, 1789.25***, 1775****, 1747.50***
Hedgefunds taking profits drop market
Crude Oil futures are trading more than a dollar from the 104.55 highs put in yesterday. Leading the trade lower is once again the prospect of Libyan supply returning to the market. Additionally, hopes that the Ukrainian situation could become clearer as the week develops. The major level to watch is 103.81; a close back above here will help keep the immediate term uptrend intact. Additionally, a stronger Dollar this morning that is retesting the 80 level has put pressure on the energy sector. Major support still comes in at the 102-102.25 level and a close below here will encourage the market to fall into consolidation mode. Still, only a close below the 100.43-100.65 level is needed to signal a failure. Traders must watch the Dollar today and a close above 80 will continue to put pressure on the market heading into tomorrow’s EIA inventory report.
Resistance: 103.42*, 103.81**, 104.48***, 105.62**, 106.39**, 112.24****
Support: 102.71*, 102.00-102.25**, 101.60**, 101.18*, 100.43-100.65***, 100*, 99.41**