Jump to navigation

Free Newsletter Modern Trader Follow

Main menu

  • Futures
    • Modern Trader Magazine
    • Commodities
    • Futures Mag Archives
    • ETFs
    • Financials
    • Forex
    • Managed Funds
    • Market Analysis
    • News
    • Options
    • Regulation
    • Technology
    • Trading Strategies
    • Education
    • Futures Op-Ed
  • Favorites
    • Alpha Pages Most Popular
    • Futures Magazine
    • Modern Trader Magazine
    • Most Popular
    • Slideshows & Lists
    • Special Topics
      • Alpha Hunters
      • Bad Boys
      • FINtech
      • High-Frequency Trading
      • Trader's Life
      • Trading Strategies
      • FUTURES MAG's 500th ISSUE
      • We asked traders
  • Traders
    • Market Data
    • Hot Charts
    • Interactive Charts
    • Trading Calendar
  • FINalternatives
  • Hard Assets
    • Home
    • Base Metals
    • Precious Metals
    • Rare Earth Metals
    • Commodities
    • Mining Investments
    • Slideshows
  • Modern Trader
    • Subscribe
    • Past Issues
  • All +
    • Follow Us +
      • FuturesMag
      • Newsletters
      • Facebook
      • Google+
      • Linkedin
      • Twitter
      • RSS Feeds
    • About Us +
      • About
      • Advertise
      • Contact
      • Contribute
      • Privacy Policy
  • !
Follow Futures          
       
more >>

We Asked Traders

We asked traders for their opinion on the launch of bitcoin futures

Sponsored Content

Trading

Equities.com launches unlimited trading via Tradier Brokerage, Transforming into a news & fintech portal

Featured Topics

more Commodities>>

Commodities

Energy demand steps back in play
Advertisement
more Volatility>>

Volatility

Volatility & opportunity in the energy sector
more Financials>>

Financials

Daily Price Action: E-mini S&P 500
more Options>>

Options

Trading Vertical Option Spreads

Advertisement

Putting the jobs number in context

Fibonacci Forecaster

By Jeff Greenblatt

April 7, 2014 • Reprints

The jobs number was very interesting. At 192,000, it wasn’t a bad number. But the Nasdaq got crushed. Then, for the first time, the bears came out of hibernation on the Dow as well. So what is going on? Recently, I told you that Clinton was credited with 22 million jobs in eight years. That’s 2.75 million a year, which converts to 229,000 a month. Obviously, some months will be better, some not so much. But remember, he was in office at the right place and the right time. He was the beneficiary of a historic Internet breakthrough. He was the beneficiary of the back end of all the good work created by Ronald Reagan. So they are only 40,000 jobs off that pace. What’s a measly 40,000 among friends? Apparently, somebody thinks we should do better.

We continue to see the complacency and arrogance as represented by the VIX. This is an economy only five years removed from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. They expect this economy to measure up to that one? Who’s kidding whom? I see this very low VIX starting to manifest itself in many kinds of weird ways. But now this market is making new highs again, and when markets make new highs it means it’s priced to perfection. I remember back in the summer of 2000 when stocks were priced to perfection and in fact some of the earnings reports were good. It didn’t matter.

Those were the heady days of the “whisper number,” and if it didn’t hit that number they took the stock out to the woodshed. Stock meets expectation? Not good enough, the whisper number was higher. In this case some of the experts felt the number should have been north of 200,000. Why? They had no idea why? These people are just pulling numbers out of the sky. Here we were coming off the coldest winter in years, and just 30 days ago they were praying the numbers were skewed by the weather. So in essence, 192,000 should have been more than good enough. If you saw some the reactions by Democrats, they weren’t happy at all. You’d think they already lost the election. Now it’s too late. Maybe some of them shouldn’t have been so full of ideology and more pragmatic about the economy.

Part of the problem is the sticker shock many are experiencing as they look for houses this season. According to a CNBC article, home prices are up 12.2 percent from this time a year ago and the source is CoreLogic, while wages are only up 2.1 percent. That could be why the stock market got crushed last session. Now lenders actually require buyers to come up with a healthy down payment, something that didn’t happen during the housing boom last decade. The only people who have it are the hedge funds and other investors, which are suddenly backing off. To give you an idea, 65% of mortgage originations were at a fixed rate, while we are above 95% right now. Additionally, buyers could get in with 1% teaser variable rates. Rising rates, higher down payments and a less-accommodating economy add up to shrinking affordability. According to Zillow, by historical standards there is a 62.4% unaffordability rating for Miami. Los Angeles is 57.2%. San Diego is 55.3%. Denver, San Francisco and San Jose are all above 50%.

Page 1 of 2
>>next >

About the Author

Jeff Greenblatt is the author of Breakthrough Strategies For Predicting Any Market, editor of the Fibonacci Forecaster, director of Lucas Wave International, LLC. and a private trader for the past eight years.

Lucas Wave International (https://www.lucaswaveinternational.com) provides forecasts of financial markets via the Fibonacci Forecaster and other reports. The company provides coaching/seminars to teach traders around the world about this cutting edge methodology.

Related Articles
Energy demand steps back in play
Crude shoulder season blues
Crude corrects on production pop, but demand side is looming
Oil risk factors rise
Refiners work overtime as crude inventories drop
Previous
Dan Gramza: Keep an eye on the Euro
Next
Gold & silver; Where is the Chinese demand?
Related Terms
Putin 110John Kerry 100Ronald Reagan 58CBS 42Clinton 42Ben Stein 5CoreLogic 3historic Internet breakthrough 1

Free Newsletter Modern Trader Follow

Main menu

  • Futures
    • Modern Trader Magazine
    • Commodities
    • Futures Mag Archives
    • ETFs
    • Financials
    • Forex
    • Managed Funds
    • Market Analysis
    • News
    • Options
    • Regulation
    • Technology
    • Trading Strategies
    • Education
    • Futures Op-Ed
  • Favorites
    • Alpha Pages Most Popular
    • Futures Magazine
    • Modern Trader Magazine
    • Most Popular
    • Slideshows & Lists
    • Special Topics
      • Alpha Hunters
      • Bad Boys
      • FINtech
      • High-Frequency Trading
      • Trader's Life
      • Trading Strategies
      • FUTURES MAG's 500th ISSUE
      • We asked traders
  • Traders
    • Market Data
    • Hot Charts
    • Interactive Charts
    • Trading Calendar
  • FINalternatives
  • Hard Assets
    • Home
    • Base Metals
    • Precious Metals
    • Rare Earth Metals
    • Commodities
    • Mining Investments
    • Slideshows
  • Modern Trader
    • Subscribe
    • Past Issues
  • All +
    • Follow Us +
      • FuturesMag
      • Newsletters
      • Facebook
      • Google+
      • Linkedin
      • Twitter
      • RSS Feeds
    • About Us +
      • About
      • Advertise
      • Contact
      • Contribute
      • Privacy Policy
  • !
images