S&P 500 holds above key 1867 Friday morning

Emerging-market equities rose today, led by the biggest gain in five weeks for Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares. Better-than-estimated economic data has seemingly trumped concern that benchmark interest rates may rise in the middle of next year.

Equities

The E-mini S&P 500 (CME:ESM14) is above one of our key levels of 1867 this morning, up another 6.5 points to 1872.50. At this point, we do not note any key short term reversal signals, and believe that the market could indeed continue to press higher and shoot for 1900. 1882 is our next short term market profile target. We are starting to think we could see a huge capitulation rally at some point in the near future, breaking above the 1900 level. We believe the market is very happy with the economic growth figures that have been released, and also with the fact that the Crimea annexation/referendum vote has not resulted in major international military escalation.

Bonds

The U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds (CBOT:USM14) are up 12 ticks to 132’14. Volume looks light to us, thus we believe this is not necessarily the start of a bigger rally. 132’06 is our daily pivot level, and the market is above this level today. It is very interesting to see the bonds rally alongside stocks. It looks as though a double top might be in for bonds at 134, so this would be our key resistance level at this point.

Currencies

The Canadian dollar is up 32 ticks to 89.09. 88.50 served as a key support level, and we noticed a doji star yesterday in the Canadian, and looking back that served to be a sign for the recent sell-off to be over. The JUN14 Pound is down 13 ticks to 164.80. The candlestick formations still do not indicate to us any bullish reversal is near. The JUN14 USD is down 6 ticks to 80.30, while the Euro is up 8 ticks to 137.87. Technically, the Euro still looks to be in an uptrend.

Commodities

Gold (COMEX:GCJ14) is just about unchanged at $1,335, bouncing off key support areas near $1,325 yesterday. Soybeans (NYBOT:JSK14) have really come down hard after testing the key $14.50 level yesterday. Today, this contrat is down $0.28 to $14.05. We believe it will find value below $14.00. MAY14 copper is up $.026 to $2.95. We believe the key $2.88 level will serve as very solid support going forward. WTI crude oil (NYMEX:CLJ14) is up almost a dollar to $99.83. It punctured through the $100 level, but then came back down. We believe the daily candlesticks are not showing a bearish sign yet, but we are watching for buying exhaustion signs.

 

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