MAY 2014 CORN(CBOT:CK14):
Corn has looked strong since bottoming on Jan. 10 and price action has taken a bit of a digestive pause this week as participants look ahead to the important grain numbers at the end of this month. Technically, the intermediate trend remains positive above $4.64’0 with local support seen at $4.76’4 and $4.72’4. Given the recent strength in corn, one potential strategy to implement is buying corrective pullbacks into support. The market has been in a bit of a range over the past few days with the previously mentioned support pivots acting as the lower levels of the digestive area. Buying dips into these pivots in anticipation of, at least, a move back up to the upper resistance pivot of the range around $4.92’6 is one potential opportunity. Above here, the $5.02’4 target is the next level of resistance offered on the chart. With the intermediate-term ascending trendline intersecting the market around roughly the $4.70 area, look for the $4.70 to $4.72’4 area to be the most significant area of support on the chart for the remainder of the week.
(May 2014 Corn 30-minute Bar Chart) (eSignal)
JUNE 2014 JAPANESE YEN(CME:JYM14):
The Japanese Yen has had trouble trading above the 9886 level on the chart as yesterday’s rejection marks the third time this month that price has tested this resistance pivot and been unsuccessful in penetrating above it. However, with FOMC Minutes scheduled to be released later this afternoon, we could certainly see some volatility in the yen. The intermediate directional bias appears to be sideways to positive at this point as the currency has looked relatively strong since the start of 2014. Given the technical landscape of this market, there looks to be two relatively high-probability opportunities in this market today. Buying dips in to the 9813 to 9822 support band appears to be a well-defined risk/reward opportunity as a break below the low of the recent consolidation area could be the start of a larger decline. Another opportunity is to sell strength into the 9886 pivot. Price has rejected from this resistance pivot three times now and a fourth rally into this pivot could yield the same results. However, traders looking to trade this range must be cognizant of the FOMC announcement this afternoon and plan accordingly. This announcement can cause extremely volatile moves in the yen and has the potential to begin a new directional move. The RSI remains strong at this point, rotating within the 80-40 zone since March 9. Use this momentum indicator to confirm or reject potential trading opportunities at the previously mentioned entry pivots.
(JUN. ’14 Japanese Yen 30-minute Bar Chart) (eSignal)
MAY 2014 SUGAR(NYBOT:SBK14):
Sugar has recently been giving off some mixed signals on the chart following the strong run-up in price over the past few weeks. Sugar has broken below a few important technical support pivots, which were expected to hold and has begun to break the higher high higher low structure that it spent the past two months building. However, yesterday did show some strength in sugar as price found support at the 17.00¢ level and has since moved higher. At the current time, there doesn’t appear to be an edge in either direction; although, the 17.00¢ level could be a valid support pivot to establish long positions in anticipation of a reversal. Another important support area that could prove to be a valid entry signal for bullish traders is the Fibonacci confluence zone from 16.67¢ to 16.70¢. If the market is indeed going to regain its footing and get back on the bull campaign, the 17.00¢ and 16.70¢ pivots seem to be the most likely support pivots for a potential bottom in Sugar. Furthermore, the 17.36¢ to 17.45¢ zone remains an important technical level on the chart. If prices in sugar could close above this area, this could introduce some additional bullish sentiment into the market.
(May ’14 Sugar 30-minute Bar Chart) (eSignal)