Cocoa and cotton close higher

Weekly softs outlook

Coffee (NYBOT:KCK14)

General Comments: Futures closed much lower on speculative long liquidation on forecasts for some big rains to appear in Coffee areas this weekend. Rains could be doublé the normal amounts when they appear. But, it remains mostly dry in Coffee areas of Brazil although some showers have been reported this month. Producer selling was quiet. London found more support on potential drought conditions in Vietnam and the possibility of production losses for the next crop. The lack of rain in Coffee producing áreas of Brazil over the last month has hurt Coffee production potential as the crop was forming cherries. Exports so far this year from Vietnam have been less than last year and might stay weak if the weather does not improve there. Producers are supposed to own a lot of Coffee but will wait until they have better ideas of the next crop before selling. The market needs that Coffee to be exported to help fill the vacuum left by the poor production in Brazil.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.588 million bags. GCA stocks were 4.826 million bags at the end of February, from 5.029 million at the end of January. The ICO composite price is now 167.66 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather through Wednesday, then showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather, although some showers are expected in Eastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 187.00 and 171.00. Support is at 184.00, 180.00, and 177.00, and resistance is at 193.00, 201.00 and 204.00. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2125, 2100, and 2035, and resistance is at 2185, 2220, and 2250. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with no objectives. Support is at 244.00, 242.00 and 239.00, and resistance is at 248.00, 252.00 and 255.00.

Sugar (NYBOT:SBK14)

General Comments: Futures were lower on forecasts for improved rains to move into production areas of Brazil sometime this weekend. The rains will help a lot to improve the growing conditions for the next crop. It was a bearish day on the charts. The market still has plenty of product. Brazil might have less Sugar, but there still seems to be enough in the market from Thailand and the demand side does not seem strong. Little offer was reported from Brazil, but Thailand has been selling Sugar. Demand news remains hard to find. Weather has improved in Sugar areas of Brazil, but overall the region remains too dry. Rains in the forecast for this weekend could help the crop recoup some of the losses but regular rains will be needed soon. Weather conditions in key production áreas around the world are rated as mostly good except for the dry weather in Brazil.

Overnight News: Brazil could see mostly dry weather and near to above normal tempertures. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1650 and 1550. Support is at 1685, 1660, and 1640, and resistance is at 1745, 1790, and 1810. Trends in London are down with objectives of 425.00. Support is at 450.00, 446.00, and 440.00, and resistance is at 462.00, 471.00 and 479.00.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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