Weekly softs outlook

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJK14)

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher as weather stays dry in Brazil and as crops remain short in the United States. Florida fruit sizes have been small and the Greening Disease takes more and more of a toll on crops. The weather is still good in Florida and the chances to freeze trees is less as the sun gets higher in the sky and daylight hours increase. The Greening Disease is working hard to keep overall production down. The disease will affect production for several more years. Brazil has seen weather might that be stressing trees as reports indicate that many áreas still need rain. Mostly dry weather is in the forecast for Brazil. More rain would be beneficial in Florida, but harvest conditions remain good. Harvest is starting to come to a close for early and mid Oranges. The Valencia harvest is expanding as the early harvest winds down. Blooms are being reported in South Florida.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions today, showers on Wednesday, then dry weather again. Temperatures will average near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 152.00, 150.00, and 148.00 May, with resistance at 157.00, 159.00, and 162.00 May.

 

COFFEE (NYBOT:KCK14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher again as Brazil stays mostly dry. Mostly dry weather is in the forecast through the weekend. Reports of increased offers from other Arabica producers above $2.00 per pound was seen, but tight markets overall kept futures from closing lower. London found more support on potential drought conditions in Vietnam and the possibility of production losses for the next crop. The lack of rain in Coffee producing áreas of Brazil over the last month has hurt Coffee production potential as the crop was forming cherries. Exports so far this year from Vietnam have been less than last year and might stay weak if the weather does not improve there. The market needs that Coffee to be exported to help fill the vacuum left by the poor production in Brazil. Trends are up in all three markets.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.593 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 176.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get mostly dry weather, although some showers are expected in Eastern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 223.00 and 245.00 May. Support is at 201.00, 193.00, and 184.00 May, and resistance is at 210.00, 213.00 and 216.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2210, 2260, and 2310 May. Support is at 2135, 2100, and 2035 May, and resistance is at 2195, 2220, and 2250 May. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with no objectives. Support is at 240.00, 234.00, and 229.00 May, and resistance is at 246.00, 252.00, and 258.00 May.

 

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBK14)

General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and much lower in London. Futures remain in a trading range and traders are looking for news. Only light precipitation is likely this week in Brazil to support the Bulls, but there should still be Sugar aropund. Little offer was reported from Brazil, but Thailand has been selling Sugar at stable differentials. Demand news remains hard to find. Weather has improved in Sugar áreas of Brazil, but overall the región remains too dry. Rains now could help the crop recoup some of the losses but regular rains will be needed soon. Charts show that the overall tone is mixed as the market is in a consolidation phase. Weather conditions in key production áreas around the world are rated as mostly good except for the dry weather in Brazil. 

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and near to above normal tempertures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1780, 1745, and 1705 May, and resistance is at 1845, 1865, and 1890 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 470.00, 467.00, and 464.00 May, and resistance is at 479.00, 485.00, and 490.00 May.

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