Different market reactions to jobs report

“Russia today is dangerous,” Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite told reporters at an emergency meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels. 

“After Ukraine will be Moldova, and after Moldova will be different countries. They are trying to rewrite the borders after the Second World War in Europe.” 

Employers added more workers than projected in February. The 175,000 gain in employment followed a revised 129,000 increase the prior month that was bigger than initially estimated.

Equities: The E-mini S&P 500 (CME:SPM14) started off the morning on a high note, then started to sing the blues. The market is now down 4 points to 1,872.25. It is not yet showing us major weakness, however, if the market stays near lows, it will put in a potentially bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. The market did not have enough strength to get to our key level of 1,896. With the tensions between Russia and Ukraine not necessarily over, we would not be surprised to see sellers start to emerge more in this market.

Bonds: The 30-yr bonds tested 2014 lows upon the release of the upbeat jobs number, but then started to rally off lows, probing above the 131 level. The bonds are still down on the day however, trading lower by 22 ticks. The bonds may however still be supported by a safe haven bid due to the Russia-Ukraine situation. We still believe the bonds may be more inclined to head lower, especially because it looks to us as though the Fed is not inclined to pause tapering at this point.

Currencies: The Euro (CME:ECM14) is up 6 ticks to 138.67, making a brief run above 1.39 before getting rejected above that level. The Aussie is down 14 ticks to 90.76, after trading higher by over 100 ticks yesterday. We believe the Aussie is at an interesting level, because on one hand we could see the Aussie head lower as China slowdown fears increase, but on the other hand we could see the Aussie appreciate, as we do notice a potentially bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern. Even with the big jobs numbers, The U.S. Dollar Index (NYBOT:DXH14) is up only 7 ticks.

Commodities: Coffee (NYBOT:KCK14) is hanging out right near the $2.00 level, and we are very curious to see if it heads higher next week, the week of the next coffee options expiration. $2.13 is our next market profile upside extension target. Crude oil (NYMEX:CLJ14) is up $1.05 to $102.61, after not being able to break down through $100 this week. We believe crude might find a short term range between $100 and $105. Grain markets popped a lot higher this morning, and have now settled down. However, they have come down from morning highs. Corn hit $5.025, but is now at $4.91. We believe the $5 could be a very key barrier going forward.

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