- U.S. stocks rose sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to an all-time high in early trading today.
- Fewer Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.
- The Federal Reserve said yesterday in its Beige Book business survey that the economy in most regions grew last month. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.25% today.
Equities: The March E-mini S&P 500(CME:ESM14) is up 6.75 points to 1879.25. We are still focused on our current target of 1896, according to our market profile analysis. Again, the fact that the market has been holding (and rallying) above 1851, looks like a bullish short term sign. The jobs report tomorrow might have a big impact, but unless it is really out of line in either direction, we expect more strength in the market tomorrow. A run towards 1900 would not be a big surprise to us at all.
Bonds: As we noted yesterday, we believe the bonds(CBOT:USM14) are starting to look bearish. The 30-year bond could not hold above the 134 level twice now this year, and we believe that the bonds could head lower, especially if we see a big upside surprise in the jobs report tomorrow. We see the 128 level approaching soon; 130’29 is our next market profile downside target.
Currencies: The currencies are big movers today, with several up big against the dollar. The euro(CME:ECM14) is up 115 ticks to 138.46, while the Aussie(CME:ADM14) future is up 109 ticks to 90.85. The Aussie looks to us to be breaking out of a range, and could head higher from here, possibly to 92. Our next technical market profile target is 91.46. The Canadian(CME:CDM14) is up 63 ticks to 91.21, while the U.S. Dollar index is down 41 ticks to 79.65. Our next profile target for the USD is around 79.25. The kiwi has also been very strong as of late.
Commodities: May coffee(NYBOT:KCK14) burst higher near the close yesterday, breaking the $2 barrier. Today it is down slightly to $1.97. Our next profile target for coffee is $2.13. We would not be surprised to see coffee try to break higher above $2 again. At this point, we can honestly say coffee can go anywhere fast. April gold(COMEX:GCJ14) is up $8 to $1,348, and looks to be fairly strong. May silver is up to $21.48, and has been in a quiet trade recently.