Does crude need to retreat in order to advance?

Crude Oil Elliott Wave Analysis: Corrective Rally

Crude oil has reversed nicely to the upside in the last couple of weeks from a $91.00 low, in impulsive fashion so we suspect that prices are in corrective reversal of wave 2).  As such the current rally is temporary, but needs to be made in three legs, ideally with a three-wave retracement for 61.8% compared to previous five waves down. We see prices now at the end of wave A with so be aware of a wave B pullback in the second part of February.

OIL Daily Elliott Wave Analysis


Crude OIL Four-hour

We are tracking final stages of an impulsive wave A that could find a top in this week. On the four-hour chart we are looking at red wave v) of (v) that should be made by five smaller waves. Notice that the sub-structure from $93.30 is still not in five waves, so we assume that recent minor retracement was wave iv, just another minor correction within ongoing trend. Price could rise up to $103.50, but keep in mind that rally is in late stages of an extended pattern, so sooner or later market will turn south, ideally for a bigger three wave decline.

OIL 4h Elliott Wave Analysis


Crude OIL One-hour

Crude oil remains bullish for a minimum one leg to the upside, possibly up to $103.50 to $104.00 area but $101.70 first must hold.

OIL One-hour Elliott Wave Analysis


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About the Author

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and He also is founder of forex services on provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website:

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