Coffee looks for jolt to form trading bottom

FCOJ (NYBOT:OJH14)

General Comments: Futures closed lower as forecasts call for moderate temperatures in Florida. Front months suffered the most as spreads turned weaker, a sign of increased producer selling in the market and also a sign of some speculative long liquidation. There does not appear to be any cold weather threats on the horizon for the crops in Florida. Florida is harvesting a very small crop of oranges with good weather due to disease problems with the greening disease. The greening disease could cause reduced production for the next few years. Growing and harvest conditions in the state of Florida remain mostly good, with mostly dry conditions and a few showers every now and then. Irrigation water is available and is being used. Harvest remains active for early and mid-Oranges, but fruit sizes are reported to be small. The Valencia harvest is expanding. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but some showers are possible midweek. Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 139.00, 137.00, and 135.00 March, with resistance at 143.50, 145.00, and 146.00 March.

SUGAR (NYBOT:SBH14)

General Comments: Futures were higher on ideas that the market is oversold and on some talk that the current dry weather could hurt Sugarcane production for the coming year. There is not yet any change in the overall fundamental picture. There is still too much Sugar around the world market and many traders still think the surplus production for this year could be huge. Thai offers are strong and differentials are holding steady. Thai Raw Sugar differentials are starting to weaken as Thai exporters try to move a big crop as fast as possible. Thai exporters are worried about increasing offers from India and lower prices for futures and differentials down the road. They are offering Raw Sugar now and intend to offer White Sugar later in order to move the product as quickly as possible. India is still offering. Brazil is offering less now that the harvest season is over. Weather conditions in key production areas around the world are rated as mostly good except for the possible dry weather in Brazil.

Overnight News: Brazil could see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1470 and 1440 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1550, and 1570 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 400.00, 397.00, and 394.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00, 415.00, and 420.00 March.

COCOA (NYBOT:CCH14)

General Comments: Futures closed higher. There was support from ideas of weakening stocks, and many still point to the ICCO reports that show that the deficit can increase again this year in a big way. Supplies from West Africa have increased and the market has more Cocoa to work with for at least the short term, but the West Africa harvest is about over and a lot of the Cocoa has already been sold. Arrivals from Ivory Coast and purchases from Ghana have been above expectations so far this year and at least as strong as last year. Production appears to have been underestimated due to the stronger than expected data from West Africa. A good midcrop production is expected in the Spring from Africa as weather now is good for the mid-crop development. It is the dry season, but showers have appeared and would mean a lot for trees and increased mid-crop production. There is also talk of some losses in Indonesia and other countries in Southeast Asia from recent heavy rains.

Overnight News: Light showers are expected in West Africa, especially late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.658 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2940 and 2960 March. Support is at 2835, 2800, and 2770 March, with resistance at 2950, 2980, and 3010 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 1810, 1775, and 1760 March, with resistance at 1870, 1900, and 1930 March.

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About the Author
Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

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